Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi Rebels Point Spread Picks

Last week Alabama looked as bad as they ever have in the Saban era. The biggest question mark has been at QB. Alabama made a switch at QB last week vs. South Florida and was held to 17 points and 310 total yards. I thought Jalen Milroe moved the ball well, but made a couple of big mistakes vs. Texas. He will not be able to make the same mistakes vs. Ole Miss who has started 3-0 SU/ATS. The Alabama defense has been good but not what we are used to seeing. Ole Miss's stats look a lot more like what we are used to seeing from Alabama, and the Rebels have that explosiveness that can get separation in a game quickly. Alabama enters this game with far more questions than answers, while Ole Miss is running on all cylinders. Play Ole Miss. 

Alabama's defense is No. 13 in the country in yards allowed, No. 11 in points surrendered (18.3 pg), and third on third-down (27.74%). Alabama is 48-28 UNDER the total against teams that average over 200 yards rushing, 43-21 UNDER after playing three straight SEC contests, plus 40-24 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. Mississippi is home off a bye week and is 30-16 UNDER the total when working on two or more weeks of rest, as well as 45-25 UNDER against offenses that average 425+ total yards per contest. Ole Miss is tied with LSU with one loss in the SEC West and the defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the conference. Mississippi is 11-3 UNDER the total against winning teams, as well as 9-1 UNDER when they face teams that outscore their opponents by 10+ points per contest. Take Alabama/Mississippi UNDER the total.

Mississippi has an electrifying QB in Matt Corral (9 TDs, 0 INTs) as the Rebels lead the nation with 635.3 yards of offense per game and also in scoring (52 points per game). They are off a bye week with extra time to prepare for this big SEC battle. Mississippi is 46-28 ATS against winning teams and 41-23 ATS versus opponents who average 250+ yards passing. Ole Miss gave Alabama a dogfight last year, a 63-48 Tide win despite the Rebels rolling up 647 yards with Corral passing for 365 of them. Ole Miss is also 37-17-1 UNDER the total on the road against teams with a winning home record and 19-8 UNDER on the road after a bye week. Alabama had to play last week, one week after allowing 440 yards to Florida in a 31-29 win. Alabama is 10-19 ATS versus teams that average 230+ yards rushing, as well as 53-36 UNDER the total as a home favorite. Ole Miss has covered six of the last eight meetings with Bama and is armed to make this another close one. Take Mississippi for the cover and also play the UNDER for a Max Play.