Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles Point Spread Picks

Florida State's pass defense ranks 127th nationally, giving up 351 yards a game through the air, and its defense ranks 116th overall in total yards allowed. Alabama has outscored its two opponents 93-27, and an offense facing a secondary this porous is exactly what Alabama's price is built around. Florida State forces turnovers at one of the best rates in the country, which has kept its numbers respectable, but it hasn't shown up as a defense that can slow a team averaging more than 46 points a game. Florida State can manufacture short fields off turnovers, but scoring off them still means stopping Alabama, and nothing in this profile says it can. Kentucky's last game was a 45-17 loss to Alabama, and the score understates it: Kentucky led 17-13 at halftime before getting shut out 32-0 after the break, managing 62 total yards and one first down the rest of the way. That's the same Alabama that's a leg on this ticket tonight, and Kentucky travels to face another ranked opponent off it, with cornerback Grant Grayton and safety Jamarrion Harkless questionable and a reserve defensive end ruled out. Texas A&M has outscored its two opponents 98-20, the best margin of anyone on this parlay, and a first-year Kentucky staff hasn't found an answer for a defense that came apart in the second half last week. Kentucky was competitive for one half against a team on this ticket and has shown nothing since to suggest it holds up for four quarters against another. Louisiana Tech is also replacing its quarterback: Blake Baker is out with a hand injury, and backup Trey Kukuk takes over against a Power Conference defense for the first time all season, one week after a 45-14 loss to LSU. Baylor is also without its starter, DJ Lagway, out a third straight game with an ankle injury from the Auburn loss, but backup Nate Bennett has already shown the offense works without him, throwing Baylor to a 44-3 rout of Prairie View A&M last time out. That Auburn loss was self-inflicted, two turnovers and a failed fourth-down try in a one-score game, not a sign Baylor's overmatched at this level. Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks, but only one has already proven his backup can produce, and it isn't the one facing a Power Conference defense for the first time. None of these is a price worth laying by itself: Alabama at -1150, Texas A&M at -733, Baylor at -1011. Stacked together, the ticket comes down to -280, and all three need to win. Alabama doesn't need Florida State's turnovers to keep the score down, Texas A&M doesn't need last week's second half to repeat itself, and Baylor doesn't need Nate Bennett to be more than he already showed against Prairie View A&M.

These teams have a long history of being top-notch programs, although a National Championship may elude them again this season. Alabama lives by a high standard, where fans expect a National Championship every year. Alabama will have a 1st time starter at QB, but the Tide should have a powerful defense. The Tide had several defensive players who opted out of the NFL draft to return to Alabama for another season. Florida St. is off an ugly season that saw the Seminoles finish a woeful 2-10. While the Seminoles are going to be better, there have been a lot of changes made, and how do you go from 2-10 to beating Alabama in Week 1? I don't think this game will be very competitive. Bet on Alabama.