Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Point Spread Picks

Florida brought back only nine starters, but it hasn't shown yet as the Gators are off to a 2-0 start against Florida Atlantic and South Florida. Of course, those schools are a far cry from this week's opponent, defending national champion Alabama, but the Gators gave the Crimson Tide a scare losing 52-46 in the SEC chamionship game last year as a 16.5-point underdog, which is close to what Florida is getting in this game. The Gators had the skill talent, but not enough strength in the trenches and that is where they have improved this season, including adding three 300-pound transfers on the defensive line. Through two games, Florida is 18th in the nation in sacks and 26th in rushing defense. Alabama has clobbered its first two opponents while allowing 13.5 points per game. Florida has allowed an average of 17.0 points. The posted total in this game is 60 points, which is inflated due to the competition of the teams' previous opponents. Florida is 7-3-1 ATS its past 11 games after an ATS loss and the Gators have covered five of seven as underdogs. Play Florida and the UNDER, and make the UNDER a Max Play. 

Florida comes off a stunning 37-34 loss to LSU as a 23-point favorite. What was exposed again is this Gator defense, which has allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 37 to LSU, and 35 to both Arkansas and Ole Miss. The defense also surrenders 142.4 yards rushing per game and faces a potent Alabama offense and defense. Alabama is peaking at the right time (7-0 SU/ATS run), 55-32 ATS after six or more straight victories. The offense is deadly behind QB Mac Jones (27 TDs, 3 INTs), averaging 49.5 points and 537.8 yards per game, while the defense is #10 in points allowed (16.8 pg). Alabama is 9-2 ATS versus pass defenses that allow 58% or worse completion percentage, plus 18-7 ATS off a road win by 28-plus points. Alabama has won six in a row over the Gators, including a 54-16 rout in the 2016 SEC Championship. Play Alabama.

The University of Alabama has been a top five team under Coach Saban almost immediately upon his arrival. They are a deep team that loses players every year, but simply plugs in new ones. The end result is that they win, and usually win big. Florida completely quit last year and had a brutal season, and many feel they will be back this season as they are off to a 2-0 start. The problem is that they beat Eastern Michigan, arguably the worst team in CFB over the past two decades, then struggled at home to a bad Kentucky team and needed overtime to get the win. The bottom line is that this team looks a lot like last year's team, and if that turns out to be true, the Gators are going to be for a rough season. We will likely find that out this week at Alabama. The numbers look the same for the Tide as they have for the last three years. Through three games over the last three years, Alabama has had an offense that produced 119 points on average for the three years, and a defense that allowed 29 on average. This year's numbers are 126-35. It looks scarily similar, and the Tide is going to be around for January in the Final Four. The Gators are not what they used to be at 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. a winning team. The Tide stays warm after producing 40+ points at 14-6 ATS in their last 20. The Tide rolls, so play on Alabama.