Alabama Crimson Tide vs Clemson Tigers Point Spread Picks

Here we go again! Clemson and Alabama meet for the the fourth straight time in the CFP playoffs. Alabama got a favorable matchup last week against a small Oklahoma defensive line that was #108 in the country in yards allowed, #96 in points surrendered (32.4 per game), #129 against the pass, allowing 291 yards in the air per game. Now it's a completely different matchup against a fast and physical Clemson defense that is fourth in yards allowed, third against the rush, and second in points allowed (13.7 pg). Clemson just dominated a Notre Dame team (30-3) that was in the Top 22 defensively in yards and points surrendered. Clemson's secondary has allowed just 11 touchdowns with nine interceptions. Tigers' QB Trevor Lawrence (24 TDs, 4 INTs) leads an explosive and balanced offense that was third in total yards, averaging 274 yards passing, 256.3 rushing, for 44.3 points per game (fourth). The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Bowl games, and 13-3 ATS at neutral sites. Clemson is also 35-17 ATS after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. They match up well with Alabama, covering two of the last three years. They held 'Bama to 24 points a year ago, while winning 35-31 two years ago as a +6.5 dog, and losing by five two years ago while gaining 550 yards. And neutral-field underdogs like Clemson that outrush their opponents by 100+ yards per game at 35-10 ATS. Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are 75-58 ATS including 12-4 as a dog in the 3.5 to 10 point range. Nick Saban is a master but you know where he struggles to meet expectations? He struggles vs. great rushing teams like Clemson. Against teams that average 230+ rushing yards per game, the Saban-led Tide are just 9-18 ATS. Yes, this Alabama team is historically good. But Clemson is their equal. Take the points and play Clemson.

SUGAR BOWL - Here they go again! The Crimson Tide squeezed out a win over the Tigers in the National Title game two seasons ago before Clemson won in last season's Championship game. Alabama comes in off a loss to Auburn, so they didn't even reach the SEC title game. The Crimson Tide are 3-14 ATS following a straight-up loss. Clemson will focus on stopping the run as Alabama sophomore QB Jalen Hurts has had passing issues, going just 12-of-22 for 112 yards in the loss to Auburn. The Crimson Tide's vaunted defense was torched by Clemson the last two years, allowing 825 passing yards and seven touchdowns plus one rushing score in the two meetings. The way to hang with Alabama is speed on defense, like Auburn showed, and this Clemson defense is loaded with it once again. The Tigers' defense ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (12.8 points per game), sixth in yards allowed, anchored by first-team All-American defensive end Clelin Ferrell (8.5 sacks), junior defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (4.5 sacks), and senior linebacker Dorian O'Daniel (99 tackles, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries). Clemson also has perfect balance and speed on offense averaging over 200 yards rushing and passing with a pair of running backs averaging 7.2 and 6.4 yards per carry. The Tigers have faced six Top 20 teams this season and won them all by scores of 14-6 (against Auburn, the team that just beat 'Bama), 47-21, 31-17, 38-31, 34-10, and 38-3. Clemson is 10-1 ATS at neutral sites, 7-2-1 ATS versus winning teams, and has covered four in row against the SEC. The Tigers make it five in a row. Play Clemson.

Deshaun Watson and the Clemson Tigers get a second chance to beat Alabama and win the College Football Playoff after coming up short in last year's meeting, 45-40, with Watson completing 30 of 47 passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns. Watson also rushed for 73 yards on 20 carries, and the Tigers outgained Alabama 550-473 in total yards. The junior quarterback has completed 67.3 percent of his passes this season for 4,173 yards and 38 touchdowns, with 17 interceptions. His favorite receiver, Mike Williams, has 90 receptions for 1,267 yards and 10 TDs. Wayne Gallman is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has scored 16 touchdowns at running back. Alabama will have a new coach running the offense in Steve Sarkisian after Lane Kiffin left to concentrate on his new head coaching job at Florida Atlantic. The Crimson Tide mostly depended on turnovers to finally put away Washington in the semifinal as freshman QB Jalen Hurts was just 7 of 14 for 57 yards. The Clemson offense will present a much bigger challenge than the Huskies, who showed their true colors in an earlier 26-13 loss to USC. Hurts has a 64.6 percent completion rate, has thrown 21 touchdown passes, and nine interceptions, but has shown some weakness under pressure. The Tigers will have to be fundamentally sound on offense as the Crimson Tide has scored 12 defensive touchdowns, and Alabama tight end O.J. Howard won't sneak up on the Tigers as he did last year when he caught five passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Clemson's defense is fast and has 49 sacks, which is just one less than Alabama, and it's more capable than most teams of applying pressure on the Tide's staunch offensive line. The Tigers excel against elite competition. Dating back to last season, they are 8-1 ATS vs. teams like Bama that have average winning margins of 17+ points. Under Dabo Sweeny, Clemson is 11-3 ATS as an underdog in this range (3.5 to 10 points). Clemson is 6-0 ATS its last six Bowl games, and the revenge factor is significant in this matchup. Grab the points (get 7 even if it costs you a little more juice) and take Clemson.

The ACC has not played well this Bowl season and now another ACC team, unbeaten Clemson, has to step way up in class against mighty Alabama. The Tigers are a young team with a trio of sophomores leading the offense. They trailed at the half last week before a big second half against Oklahoma. But here the Tigers face a far superior defense. Clemson struggled in close wins at Louisville (20-17 as -5 chalk) and beat Notre Dame just 24-22 as a three-point favorite. They even struggled in the ACC Championship against a North Carolina squad that got walloped by Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Since losing to Ole Miss, the Alabama defense has been on a mission, topping the nation in points allowed (13.4 points per game). All three starters on the Crimson Tide defensive front are going to be top draft picks, with Reggie Ragland a top NFL linebacker prospect and CB Cyrus Jones also destined for the next level. Senior QB Jake Coker (19 TDs, eight INTs, 2,775 yards, 67%) runs this balanced, pro-style attack. Center Ryan Kelly is one of the best of the SEC, senior RB Derrick Henry (2,061 yards, 5.7 yards per carry) won the Heisman, while young WR Calvin Ridley (1,101 yards) is a handful. Alabama steamrolled over Wisconsin, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn (all Bowl winners). They come off a 38-0 win over Michigan State, allowing just 239 total yards, as well as a huge edge in rushing yards, 154-29. Coach Nick Saban has won three national titles at Alabama and won another while at LSU. This will be Saban’s fifth national title and all of them will have come against juggernauts. They crushed a 12-0 Notre Dame in the 2013 BCS Championship, beat a 13-0 LSU team in 2012, and 13-0 Texas in 2009. Alabama is 7-1 ATS against a winning teams, plus 11-5 ATS at neutral sites. Clemson allowed 20 points per game this season, 24.4 per game on the road and 28.7 per game over their last three. Compare that to Bama's 13.4 per game, 12.0 on the road, and 9.3 over their last three. That will be the difference here. Take Alabama to claim this season's National Championship, winning by at least a touchdown.