Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Point Spread Picks

Air Force threw one pass in its 28-7 win at Northern Illinois last Saturday. It ran 67 times, held the ball 39.1 minutes and gained 433 yards while allowing 253. For the season it averages 63.6 rushes and 9.6 passes per game with 36.6 minutes of possession, and its five games have averaged 125 combined plays. It allows 17.4 points per game, 27th among the 138 FBS teams, and it has held three of its five opponents to nine or fewer points. Its games against North Dakota State and Nevada totaled 70 and 69 points, and its other three totaled 34, 23 and 35. UNLV is 4-2 and scores 23 points per game, tied for 101st, and allows 20.8, tied for 47th. It beat North Dakota State 13-7 last Saturday, gaining 255 yards on 48 rushes and 16 passes and holding the ball 33.5 minutes. It has taken the ball away nine times in six games and lost it seven. UNLV has scored 21 or fewer in four of its six games, and I’m playing the UNDER at Air Force.

Fat and happy, unbeaten UNLV returns home after two straight road victories, beating Miami of Ohio and Wyoming.  The Rebels haven't played a home game in more than a month. Not only are the Rebels in a letdown spot, but their focus could be off. Air Force is far more dangerous than its 1-4 record shows. Navy nearly found that out the hard way last week as the Midshipmen needed a fourth-quarter field goal to nip the Falcons, 34-31, as a nearly two-touchdown home favorite. Air Force is No. 2 in the nation in total yards and rushing. The Falcons average more than one yard per play than UNLV. Quarterback Liam Szarka is emerging as a star for Air Force, becoming the first player in Mountain West history with three straight 200-yard passing and 100-yard rushing games. Falcons wide receiver Cade Harris leads the Mountain West in all-purpose yards per game, and fellow wide receiver Quin Smith is second in the nation in yards per catch at 27.5. UNLV is winning with offense, not defense. The Rebels are giving up 270 yards through the air and 140 yards on the ground per game. That ranks them 115th defensively in total yards. The Falcons are vulnerable defensively as well. However, their unique triple-option offense, expertly executed by Szarka, can maintain ball control. Take Air Force to cover. 

UNLV is getting no respect from the oddsmaker even though the Rebels are having their best season in nearly 40 years under first-year coach Barry Odom. The Rebels are underdogs this week even though they control their own destiny to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title and Air Force is coming off two really bad losses against Army and Hawaii, two of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons were 18-point favorites against Army and lost outright and then 20.5-point favorites versus Hawaii and lost 27-13. UNLV is 7-0 ATS its past seven games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS as a road dog. The Rebels routed Wyoming on Friday 34-14 with Jayden Maiava throwing for 232 yards and a TD for an astounding 165.8 QB rating. UNLV outgained the Cowboys 397-297 and now is 9-1 ATS. However, look for an outright victory by the Rebels in this matchup. Take UNLV on the moneyline as a Max Play. 

Air Force is tough to defend and match up against. The defense has allowed more than 20 points just once in six games while the offense wears down opponents behind RBs Brad Roberts (709 yards, 5.9 ypc) and John Lee Eldridge III (460 yards, 8.7 ypc). Air Force is No. 1 in the nation in rushing with 352.2 yards per contest averaging 31.8 points. UNLV has been riding the arm of QB Doug Brumfield, but he won't play after getting injured in last week's 40-7 loss at San Jose State. Sophomore QB Cameron Friel stepped in and has 8 TDs, 11 picks over the last two seasons. The defense allowed 433 yards to San Jose State, including 203 rushing. UNLV's defense is #73 in the country in yards allowed and #50 in yards rushing given up (134.8 yards per game). UNLV is 20-35 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers, plus 53-79 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Air Force whipped UNLV last year, 48-14, with 511 rushing yards, so back the visitors. Play Air Force.