Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Point Spread Picks

Fat and happy, unbeaten UNLV returns home after two straight road victories, beating Miami of Ohio and Wyoming.  The Rebels haven't played a home game in more than a month. Not only are the Rebels in a letdown spot, but their focus could be off. Air Force is far more dangerous than its 1-4 record shows. Navy nearly found that out the hard way last week as the Midshipmen needed a fourth-quarter field goal to nip the Falcons, 34-31, as a nearly two-touchdown home favorite. Air Force is No. 2 in the nation in total yards and rushing. The Falcons average more than one yard per play than UNLV. Quarterback Liam Szarka is emerging as a star for Air Force, becoming the first player in Mountain West history with three straight 200-yard passing and 100-yard rushing games. Falcons wide receiver Cade Harris leads the Mountain West in all-purpose yards per game, and fellow wide receiver Quin Smith is second in the nation in yards per catch at 27.5. UNLV is winning with offense, not defense. The Rebels are giving up 270 yards through the air and 140 yards on the ground per game. That ranks them 115th defensively in total yards. The Falcons are vulnerable defensively as well. However, their unique triple-option offense, expertly executed by Szarka, can maintain ball control. Take Air Force to cover. 

UNLV is getting no respect from the oddsmaker even though the Rebels are having their best season in nearly 40 years under first-year coach Barry Odom. The Rebels are underdogs this week even though they control their own destiny to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title and Air Force is coming off two really bad losses against Army and Hawaii, two of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons were 18-point favorites against Army and lost outright and then 20.5-point favorites versus Hawaii and lost 27-13. UNLV is 7-0 ATS its past seven games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS as a road dog. The Rebels routed Wyoming on Friday 34-14 with Jayden Maiava throwing for 232 yards and a TD for an astounding 165.8 QB rating. UNLV outgained the Cowboys 397-297 and now is 9-1 ATS. However, look for an outright victory by the Rebels in this matchup. Take UNLV on the moneyline as a Max Play. 

Air Force is tough to defend and match up against. The defense has allowed more than 20 points just once in six games while the offense wears down opponents behind RBs Brad Roberts (709 yards, 5.9 ypc) and John Lee Eldridge III (460 yards, 8.7 ypc). Air Force is No. 1 in the nation in rushing with 352.2 yards per contest averaging 31.8 points. UNLV has been riding the arm of QB Doug Brumfield, but he won't play after getting injured in last week's 40-7 loss at San Jose State. Sophomore QB Cameron Friel stepped in and has 8 TDs, 11 picks over the last two seasons. The defense allowed 433 yards to San Jose State, including 203 rushing. UNLV's defense is #73 in the country in yards allowed and #50 in yards rushing given up (134.8 yards per game). UNLV is 20-35 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers, plus 53-79 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Air Force whipped UNLV last year, 48-14, with 511 rushing yards, so back the visitors. Play Air Force.

Tony Sanchez is in his fourth year as coach of UNLV and after a slight improvement the last couple years the program has regressed to being as bad as ever. The Rebels have lost three in a row and have allowed 109 points their last two games against New Mexico and Utah State and their starting quarterback, Armani Rogers, is out until mid-November with a broken toe not that it would make much difference. Utah State scored 42 points in the first half and then eased up on the Rebels, who were outyarded 598-404. Backup quarterback Max Gilliam went 18-of-36 for 250 yards and three touchdowns and an interception, but most of the game was garbage time as the Aggies led 42-7 at the half. Air Force was in a letdown situation after its big win over Navy, but the Falcons still covered the number in a 21-17 loss at San Diego State as an 11-point underdog. The Falcons' defense held the Aztecs to 84 rushing yards and only 297 yards overall while gaining 214 yards on the ground themselves. Air Force is 5-2 ATS its last seven games dating to last season and UNLV is 2-5 ATS its last seven home games and 0-4 ATS its last four as home underdogs of at least eight points. Take Air Force.