Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Point Spread Picks

Fourteen of the past 20 meetings have gone UNDER and Navy had averaged only 6.5 points per game in the previous four meetings before defeating the Falcons 34-7 last year. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Air Force's past 10 road games against teams with winning home records. Navy has gone UNDER five of six after totaling more than 450 yards its previous game. The Midshipmen beat Rice 21-13 on Saturday and it stayed UNDER by 12 points. Navy ran the ball 48 times for 283 yards and the Owls were held to 234 yards of offense. The UNDER is 5-1 in Air Force's past six games against the American Conference. As usual, Navy's propensity to run the ball will use a lot of clock. The Midshipmen racked up 329 yards rushing on 49 carries in last year's meeting. Take the UNDER.

Running the football chews up yards and the clock and here we have two teams that prefer to run. Navy averages 6.0 yards per carry with QB Blake Horvath the leading rusher with 450 yards. The defense is allowing 23.5 points per game during its 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS start. Air Force quarterbacks have yet to throw a touchdown pass while completing 38.2 percent of their throws. The offense is averaging 12.5 points with the team on a 2-9-1 spread run. Air Force threw just five passes in last year's meeting, a 17-6 win over Navy. Air Force is on a 7-4 run UNDER the total and six of the last seven meetings between these rivals on this field have sailed UNDER. Play Navy + UNDER the total. 

Air Force is 6-0 and #9 in the country in scoring defense allowing only 14.7 points per game, #3 in total yards allowed and #6 in rush defense. The past three meetings with Navy have gone UNDER and the Midshipmen have scored a total of only 20 points while losing all three. Air Force won last year's meeting 13-10 and it stayed UNDER by 15 points even with the low posted total of 38 points. The game went UNDER by 14 points in 2021 as the Falcons won 23-3. Navy is 4-2 UNDER this season, including last week's 14-0 snoozer over Charlotte as the 49ers were held to 3.1 yards per carry on the ground and the Navy defense pressured Charlotte QB Trexler Ivey, who was only 11 of 27 for 142 yards and two interceptions. The Midshipmen are #117 in the nation scoring only 20.3 points per game. Make it a Max Play on the UNDER.

Everyone is going to look at this game, see a meager total, and decide that the OVER is the way to go. Games between military academies have a very long history of playing lower-than-expected scoring games. The big reason is they all run the triple-option and pass very little. The number of possessions is reduced and the clock runs quickly as 90% of the plays are running the ball. For the last 16 years, there have been 48 games played between the three academies which include Army, Navy, and Air Force. The UNDER is 38-9-1 ATS in those 48 games. Make the play on the UNDER.

Navy is at one of its lowest points in Ken Niumatalolo's coaching tenure as it comes off a 3-7 season, including a loss to Army. And more recently, the Midshipmen got crushed 49-7 by Marshall in their opener. Navy got its usual 300-plus rushing yards, but it couldn't stop the Thundering Herd, which had 363 passing yards. Navy has scored a total of just 20 points its last four games, three of which have gone UNDER. Air Force has gone UNDER eight of its last nine games, including its 35-14 win over Lafayette on Saturday when the Falcons racked up 370 yards on the ground. Air Force won last year's meeting, 40-7, and seven of the last nine meetings have stayed UNDER. The Falcons have covered four of the last five meetings. The Flyboys are 14-3 ATS their past 17 games after a win by at least 20 points and 21-8 ATS in non-conference games while Navy is 1-5 ATS its last six games and 3-7 ATS as a home dog. The Falcons are 10-1 UNDER their past 11 as favorites. I have two plays for you on this one. Take Air Force ATS and the UNDER.