Air Force Falcons vs Houston Cougars Point Spread Picks

Houston went 6-0 at home this season but they are just 4-3 on the road, allowing 36.1 points per game. They own a horrible run defense and so will struggle to slow down the Air Force running game which is 4th best in the nation. Houston's strength, of course, is their passing game. But, Air Force has the nation's best pass defense. So, I think Air Force has an excellent chance to win this game outright. At these nice odds, I'll back them to win outright.

Houston's offense is one of the best in the country and as the season moved along, it got better. These teams met early on in what was to be a 31-28 Air Force victory. The Cougars finished that game, their third of the season (less Div-2 game) averaging 30 ppg. It was after that game that this offense exploded to another level as they went on to score 40+ in eight of their last nine. Those games saw the Cougars average 41 ppg. The problem for Houston wasn't on offense but rather on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up points at the rate of 33.7 ppg covering 11 games against FBC teams. Air Force did not allow but four teams to score 30+ on them all season, but the teams that did were the teams on their schedule that had good offenses (Utah, TCU and BYU). Those three teams averaged 37.3 points and 475 yards per game against the Falcons. Each of these teams completed their season at 7-4 to the OVER. This one looks to be a shootout, so the OVER gets the call. I also like Air Force a lot here. In the first meeting, as mentioned, the Academy beat Houston 31-28. But, they were up 31-7 mid-way through the third quarter. So it wasn't that close. Houston's offense is formidable but you don't win Bowl games with a defense this bad. In Houston's last three games, they allowed 519 yards and 41 points per game to their opponents. Getting points against a team like that is a valuable thing and I'll do so. Take the Falcons and the OVER here.