Air Force Falcons vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Point Spread Picks

Hawaii is averaging 236.5 yards passing while rotating QBs Luke Weaver and Micah Alejado. They beat Stanford, 23-20, and come off a 23-21 loss to Fresno State as an underdog, missing a 2-point conversion in the final seconds. Hawaii is on a 12-8-1 ATS run. Air Force has lost two straight, allowing 49 points in each game to Utah and Boise State. They were favored over Utah, but lost, 49-30, allowing 473 yards while turning it over three times. Their turnover margin ranks 125th in the country, while the defense is 133rd in yards surrendered (532.5 per game). Hawaii upset the Falcons in their last meeting, 27-13, as a +20 underdog with Air Force on an 8-14-1 ATS run. Play Hawaii. 

Air Force is unbeaten in the Mountain West Conference with the second-best ground attack (273 yards per game) in the nation. The Falcons won't be in a good mood, either, after losing their first game of the season to rival Army, 23-3. Air Force is on a 10-2 spread run on the road and college football road favorites of 14.5 or more points with a winning record off an upset loss are 57-26 ATS versus losing teams. Hawaii is in last place in the Mountain West with little defense ranked 121st on third down (47.37%) and 108th at stopping the run surrendering 181.8 yards per game on the ground. Hawaii is 31-52 ATS against offenses that average 5.9 yards per play, 15-31 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven, and 21-40 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in the last contest. Play Air Force. 

Air Force heads to the Big Island to take on Hawaii as each team is 4-2 on the season. Air Force has lost only to Navy and MWC kingpin Boise State and comes in off a solid win vs. Fresno State. It's going to be tough to get over this total as Air Force runs the ball early 60 times per game. Hawaii defends the pass well but struggles vs. the run and I think the Air Force is going to dominate possession and limit the time and possessions that the Hawaii offense has to score. This is also the first meeting between these teams since 2016 so most of the Hawaii defense has never defended the option. Play the UNDER.

Hawaii comes to the mainland to take on Air Force in a Mountain West Conference showdown. One thing with Air Force is, you know what you're going to get. They are going to run the triple option about 60 plays per game, and pass a handful of times. This year, however, the option is not churning out yards at a high rate at just 4.8 yards per carry vs. teams allowing 4.5. It has been the defense that has the better numbers for Air Force. Hawaii is churning out 5.5 yards per carry, but that is the strength of the Air Force defense. Together these teams are averaging close to 100 running plays per contest, which is going to keep the clock ticking. Air Force is 26-11 to the UNDER in weeks five through nine at home in their last 37. Air Force has held four teams to 87 or fewer rushing yards, and I think they slow down the Warriors' ground game enough to keep this total UNDER wraps. Play on the UNDER.

One certainty in this game is the Air Force is going to run the ball on 80% or more of its plays, as they have topped the 50-carry mark in all of their games this season. That typically limits possessions, and grinds the clock. That won't allow a poor offensive Hawaii team to have many opportunities to find the end-zone, and as it is already, the Warriors have been shutout three times this season. The good news is that that the best part of the mediocre Hawaii defense is defending the run as they have allowed 4.3 yards per carry vs. a schedule of opponents that have averaged 4.6. The Air Force triple-option isn't as prolific as it has been in the past, generating 4.6 yards vs. teams allowing 4.0, so the Warriors should be able to halt enough drives to hold the scoring down in this one. The Falcons are 8-2 to the UNDER after producing 40+ in their previous game, have not consistently generated points in their recent past. Take the UNDER.