Air Force Falcons vs BYU Cougars Point Spread Picks

The Cougars looked like a BCS contender when they shocked Oklahoma 14-13 in the season opener. The shine has come off as the Sooners proved to be a much lesser team than most anticipated, disappearing from the National Title picture themselves. BYU has feasted on a lot of cupcakes since, but were humiliated by the two teams that had a chance to give them a game. They suffered blowout losses to Florida State and TCU, allowing 92 points to those two teams. Now they must face an Air Force team with a great defense (#9 in the nation in points allowed) and an improving offense. Air Force took TCU to the wire before bowing 20-17. No one has scored more than 23 points on this team all season, not even TCU. The potent Horned Frogs offense (averaging 39 points per game) were held to 20 points by the Falcons - their second lowest total of the season! So, getting 10 points in this one is big. The Falcons' offense is coming on and they have the defense that is capable of holding down BYU's offense that has shown warts against top defenses. Air Force is quietly building a very respectable program under the radar. They are 22-11 ATS overall the past three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 2-11 ATS since last season in conference games and they are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games following a two-game road trip. BYU has the bigger name here, but maybe not the better team. Take the Academy plus the generous points.

This is a very dangerous spot for the Cougars who have a date next week with Utah who is unbeaten in the conference. BYU could move into a first place tie with a win in that one. They went through a four-game stretch notching back-to-back shutouts, allowing just 17 points, while scoring 158 themselves. Yet things have changed for them. After getting spanked by TCU 32-7, they have had close calls vs. some bad teams. They eeked out a 42-35 win vs UNLV at home, and went on the road and needed a come from behind win at Colorado State to win 45-42. Air Force is a tough defensive team that runs the triple option which can pose a unique threat in this game, especially if the Cougars have their mind on next week. The Falcons have won five in a row and have not lost a game this season by more than 7 points. The 7 point loss was to Utah, so make no mistake - this team hung in very tough against a team battling for a BCS Bowl berth. BYU has not looked like the same team that started the season for several weeks now. Air Force is even better than the team that dropped a 7-point decision to Utah. As a result, the points look very good here. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, this Falcons team is 8-1 ATS in home games and 12-2 ATS vs. conference opponents. I'm backing the Falcons, with a shot at the upset as well.