VCU Rams vs Villanova Wildcats Point Spread Picks

Virginia Commonwealth comes off a tough defeat. They missed a chance at the Big Dance by losing the Atlantic 10 Tournament championship game to Duquesne, 57-51, as a favorite. Instead, they head out on the road settling for the NIT. VCU is 11th in the 15-team Atlantic 10 in points scored, 10th in shooting (.444), plus 11th in turnover margin (-1.06) and assist-to-turnover ratio. They've lost their last three true road games by 5, 3, and 22 points. No. 1 seed Villanova is 10-4 straight-up all-time as an NIT host. They're second in the Big East defensively in points given up (65.4 per game), fourth in field goal shooting allowed (.412), and third at defending the 3-pointer, while the offense is No. 1 from the charity stripe (.805). Villanova is on a 41-10 straight-up run at home, with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play Villanova on the moneyline. 

Talk about stepping right into the deep end of the pool, this one features a pair of teams that could both go very deep in March. Villanova lost a tough one to the eventual NCAA Champion a year ago with a tournament loss to Uconn, but that experience and a well stocked roster of veterans should benefit in an early season test such as they will have in this one vs. VCU. Coach Smart has elevated the VCU program, and he will get an early test on a national stage to go against a quality opponent. Villanova trailed Bucknell with two minutes to go, and won by seven. That is a great experience for this team as they will likely face a close game again here against VCU. VCU is averaging 92.7 points per game, but Nova isn't MD Eastern Shore, who they got 106 against. Villonova defends very well and has the experience to handle the Rams pressure, and won't allow them to use it to speed up the game. The Wildcats own a 39-10 ATS mark in their last 58, and just two of their last nine have made it over the total following a win in their last game. The Rams are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight following a win of 20 or more points, and also 20-8 to the UNDER after a win and 16-5 to the UNDER in their last 21 after a win. This is a lot like an early season NCAA Tournament game, and I think the defenses will have a lot to say with the outcome. And Villanova has the experience to get it done late. Make the play on Villanova on the moneyline, and the UNDER.