One of the many exciting aspects of March Madness is all the upsets. It gives college basketball fans dozens of opportunities to root for and wager on David vs. Goliath. David has shined with such memorable runs as No. 8 seed Butler making it to the 2011 national championship game, Loyola-Chicago in 2018 heading to its first Final Four appearance since 1963, No. 15 Saint Peter's shocking No. 2 Kentucky (2022), and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson knocking off No. 1 Purdue (2023).
So is it wiser to back point spread underdogs in March? If they have an advantage, what about backing all the dogs?
Like everything else with wagering, it's a mixed bag that needs to be evaluated carefully. Some tournaments feature a slew of underdogs barking loudly, even on the moneyline. But let's also remember that not all high seeds are chumps, as no team below a No. 8 seed has won a national title.
Upset City
An analysis computing an upset as the winner being at least five seeds below their opponent found, on average, 8.5 upsets in 60 March Madness NCAA tournament games. The percentages were much higher in the first two rounds, with No. 11 and 12 seeds upsetting No. 5 and 6 seeds over 35% of the time. That's significant, which is why so many brackets get busted early. In the 2021 and 2022 March tournaments, that model had nearly twice as many upsets (14 each time). And that reflects just straight-up moneyline percentages. With point spreads, the favorite covers around 50%.
How can underdogs keep things close and even shock the college basketball world with March surprises?
Coaching Matters
Good head coaches are one reason for the successful track record of March Madness underdogs. The coach doesn't take the court or score a single point, but a competent bench boss recognizes the strengths and weaknesses of his personnel. He maximizes rebounding, strong guard play, and 3-point shooting ability. A skilled coach can minimize weak areas, like if his team doesn't shoot well from long range.
Great coaches also set up plays for high-percentage shots or more picks and rolls, and with a deep roster, the right skip can push the tempo and substitute more often. These advantages create mismatches and wear down the opponents.
Good coaching also means watching videos to scout an opponent and identifying their weak areas to exploit. In addition, talented coaches can motivate teams and individual players. All these things can be significant edges in March, especially when the above-average head coach is a big underdog.
Confidence
Confidence is another intangible coaches bring out that's not evident on stat sheets. Confidence on the basketball court is developed during hours of practice and then executed during games, particularly at crunch time. Teams and players build confidence as the season progresses, trusting their teammates and what the head coach is preaching.
Jim Larranaga did a masterful coaching job with George Mason in 2006 that captured the nation's attention. The Patriots knocked off Michigan State, North Carolina, Wichita State, and UConn on the way to the Final Four. When the tournament began, one statistical model gave George Mason a 1.4-percent chance of making the Final Four, but they did.
In 2010-11, Butler also had great confidence with a terrific head coach in Brad Stevens, making the championship game each season. The Bulldogs were a No. 8 seed in the 2011 tournament but loaded with defense and confidence, including upsetting No. 1 seed Pittsburgh (71-70) and No. 2 Florida (74-71 in overtime).
Small schools are often underdogs, but a confident March dog can upset anyone in the right circumstances and may be perfect for March Madness underdog betting.
Star Players
The high seeds and NCAA tournament favorites often feature star players—team leaders poised as the next generation of NBA talent—but not all prospects can live up to the billing. The list of men's college basketball stars who failed to have strong NBA careers, such as Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Adam Morrison, Tyler Hansbrough, and Markelle Fultz, is long.
There are also future NBA stars playing in small college basketball conferences who shine in March, leading their team to upsets and improbable runs. Stephen Curry carried No. 10 seed Davidson, knocking off Gonzaga, No. 2 Georgetown, and No. 3 Wisconsin before falling to Kansas in the Elite Eight. Other NBA stars who played for small colleges include Scottie Pippen (Central Arkansas), George Gervin (Eastern Michigan), and Jimmy Butler (Tyler Junior College before transferring to Marquette). Trying to identify who will be an NBA star and who might be a flop is hard to do, even for scouts. Gervin, an NBA Hall-of-Famer, was a third-round NBA pick, 40th overall.
As a sports bettor, remember that some small colleges may be underdogs in March despite having the best player on the court.
Defensive Difference-Maker
No. 2 tournament seeds were upset 46 times over 39 tournaments by No. 7 or No. 10 seeds. That comes out to just over one time per year on average. How do you anticipate upsets like that? Examining team defense is always a good start.
Team defense is evident in the stats. You can look at stats like conference points given up, field goal shooting allowed, steals, and 3-point defense. When a small-conference school is matched up against a big-name program in March, look back at the regular-season non-conference slate of the small school. Did they step up in competition to face Gonzaga, Kansas, or the ACC? How did they perform?
During the 2017-18 season, Loyola-Chicago was second in the Missouri Valley Conference in points given up and third in shooting allowed (.414). During the regular season, they were a +15.5 underdog against No. 5 Florida with a posted total of 149 points. Yet, they won the game 65-59, allowing 36.9% shooting. This was a big moneyline win for the dog, sailing UNDER the number. When tournament action rolled around, Loyola-Chicago made a memorable run to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed.
Defensive prowess and intensity can be a huge difference-maker on the March Madness court regardless of what the opening point spread side and total say.
Guard Play & Turnovers
The NBA may be a big man's game, but little guys stand tall during college basketball tournament time. The guards touch the basketball the most. Having quality ball handlers who can score, pass, and execute is accentuated in tournament play because of the teams' different styles and quick turnarounds. There's less preparation for an opponent in the first four rounds, so coaches ask a lot from point guards.
Turnovers factor into upsets, as well. A big favorite with a bigger frontcourt can get flummoxed if their guard play is below average, turning it over more than usual. Turnovers get the offense out of its rhythm, leading to fast break opportunities and easy baskets for the underdog.
Buzzer Beater
Underdogs are expected to lose the game, according to the oddsmakers. However, upsets happen a lot during March Madness. Competent coaching, stellar guard play, and future NBA talent sitting under the radar on small college rosters are just a few of the reasons why we see so many upsets. Star players cut both ways: they might not perform as well in big games with the spotlights on them, while underdogs with talented stars can lead the way to an upset. Curry and Davidson were +5 dogs against Georgetown and No. 3 seed Wisconsin but won them both, 74-70 and 73-56. Team confidence and defense are other factors that I consider when handicapping whether a March underdog should probably be favored by the sportsbooks.
March Madness favorites can't win `em all, just as underdogs don't always cover, but with a bit of research, spotting live dogs has paved the way to significant profit for both me and my customers.
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