Texas Longhorns vs Xavier Musketeers Point Spread Picks

Xavier has won seven of its past eight games, covering the number in six of them, and the Musketeers have won 20 in a row straight up as favorites. Their seven-game win streak was snapped in a two-point loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament while still covering the 2.5-point spread. Xavier is #25 in the nation with a .375 3-point shooting percentage. Zach Freemantle leads the Musketeers with 17.4 points per game and Ryan Conwell averages 16.2. Xavier has not allowed more than 68 points in five of their past seven games. Texas is on a 3-9 ATS run and it has lost eight of its past 12 games after getting off to a promising start this season. The Longhorns are 1-10 ATS their past 11 games against the Big East Conference and they have lost 11 of 15 outright when playing as underdogs. Texas is 22-14 UNDER in the first half and Xavier is 18-15 UNDER before intermission. The Longhorns hit only 17 of 54 3-point tries (31.5 percent) in their three SEC Tournament games. I have three plays for this game: Take Xavier ATS, plays the first half UNDER, and bet the full game to stay UNDER the number.

The deeper teams go in the tournament, the fiercer most defenses become. Xavier is on a 7-5 run UNDER the total holding three of its last four opponents under 68 points, including 7-5 UNDER the First Half Total. Xavier is also 15-5 UNDER the First Half Total after failing to cover four or five of the last six. Xavier knocked off UConn twice, 83-73 and 82-79, as underdogs of +3 and +6, and Villanova, 88-80, as a +2 dog, while covering as underdogs against Creighton, Marquette, and Gonzaga. Xavier is 16-6 ATS versus winning teams, plus 17-8 ATS against teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ points per contest. Texas is a strong defensive team, as well, third in the Big 12 in points surrendered (67.2 per game), and ranks 19th in the country in defensive turnover rate at 22.4%. The Longhorns are on a 9-2 run UNDER the total, including 5-3 UNDER the First Half Total. Texas is 26-53 ATS when working on five or six days of rest. The Texas guards are outstanding, but they pull up on jump shots rather than taking it right to the glass, and Xavier was third in the Big East in defensive rebounding anchored by 7-foot senior Jack Nunge (7.7 rpg) and 6-9 senior Zach Freemantle (8.1 rpg). With Xavier 11-3 UNDER the First Half Total after back-to-back games making 11 or fewer turnovers, the wagering value is on a low-scoring first half with the dog covering the game. Take Xavier + the First Half UNDER the total.