Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Point Spread Picks

It doesn't get a lot better than this. These Texas rivals are, for now, on the good side of the bubble. Texas is just 17-11 on the season, but has played a tough schedule and comes into this game with a KenPom rating of 31. Texas A&M is 19-9 on the season and has a KenPom rating not far from Texas, at 36. This total may be a bit high in general, but I think, with what is at stake here, the defense for both these clubs is going to have an impact on deciding the game. Both teams can score, but with so much on the line, I project this game to be best in the 150s, not enough to push the total over the top. My play is UNDER the total.

Texas could use a big win to build a tournament resume and earn a ticket to the big dance. The Longhorns are 11-6 but haven't quite been the NCAA Tournament "lock" team that was expected. Texas is still very good, with 4 players averaging 13+ ppg, giving them a lot of options. Texas A&M Coach Bucky McMillan brought back 0 starters, but through the portal, grad transfers, etc, he has a team where 8 of the top 9 players are upperclassmen. (Juniors or Seniors). Texas A&M is 11-4, but I think that is a bit of a mirage. Texas A&M has only been favored 3 times this season, so at this point, you can say confidently that A&M has outperformed its metrics. I like Texas in this one.

Texas A&M won the first meeting 80-60 and then lost by a point in the rematch. The Aggies have the opportunity to avenge that defeat in today's second round of the SEC tournament. The Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS the past six meetings and they come off two victories and covers against Auburn and LSU. They held the Tigers to 30 percent shooting and 7-for-26 on 3-point tries on Saturday. Texas once had a promising season in store, but the Longhorns have lost seven of 10 although they did get a 79-72 win pver Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Longhorns are on a 2-8 ATS run and they are 1-6-1 ATS following a win. Take Texas A&M. 

The SEC may be the strongest conference in history. The SEC teams playing at home this season have a combined 125-2 SU record. Texas will have its hands full at Texas A&M tonight. It looks like a league where home court is going to mean a little extra. The Texas offense is shooting a sizzling 52% on the season, and 42% from deep. They are going to have a hard challenge from Texas A&M as the Aggies really get after it on defense. A&M is allowing opponents just 38% from the field and an ugly 29% from deep. Hard to stay away from a great defensive team at home, where 125 out of 127 have won. Make the play on Texas A&M on the money line.