Purdue Boilermakers vs Yale Bulldogs Point Spread Picks

Yale comes off a 91-79 loss to Illinois-Chicago and steps way up in competition. A year ago, they stepped up in November to face Gonzaga and lost 86-71 as a +11 dog. They also lost in March tournament action to San Diego State, 85-57, as a +5.5 underdog. No. 14 Purdue has made short work of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (90-73) and Northern Kentucky (72-50). They began last season's non-conference slate 7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, including a 73-63 win over Gonzaga. Mackey Arena is sold out for this game and the Boilermakers trounced Yale in 2022, 78-56, as a 16.5-point favorite on a neutral court. Play Purdue. 

Yale is on a 10-5 run UNDER the total and is not going to get into a running match with Purdue. Yale was second in the Ivy League in points allowed (67.6 ppg), No. 1 in field goal (.426) and three-point defense (.279). Yale is 20-7 ATS at neutral sites, including 12-5 ATS as a neutral court underdog, plus 32-8 ATS away from home against teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. They're also 90-77 UNDER the total versus winning teams. Purdue is 12-20-1 as chalk, 16-27 ATS against winning teams, 8-17 ATS versus teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per contest. They're capable of playing any style, as when Rutgers slowed things down in a 70-68 Purdue win going UNDER the total with the Boilermakers a 13-point favorite. Purdue is 18-4 UNDER the First Half Total off a loss to a conference rival. With the UNDER going 68-30 in neutral court first-round games involving two teams with winning percentages between 60-80%, back the dog in a defensive duel. Play Yale (+16.5) for the game and UNDER the total and First Half UNDER.