This pick was released to clients on February 12, 2026 at 12:46PM ET.
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Valparaiso at Illinois State

February 12, 2026
img7:00 PM Eastern

This isn't nearly the lopsided matchup envisioned before the season began. Illinois State was the preseason favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference. However, the Redbirds are just 8-6 in conference play while Valparaiso is only one game behind them at 7-7. The Beacons are playing well, too. They just upset defending Missouri Valley Conference champion Drake, 81-76, this past Monday on the road as a 3.5-point underdog. Valparaiso is 3-1 in its last four games and is on a huge point spread roll. The Beacons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. At 13-12 overall, Valparaiso has its first winning record through 25 games since 2018-2019. Valparaiso defeated Illinois State, 77-71, as a 6.5-point home underdog on Jan. 7. That was the 13th time in the last 15 meetings the Beacons have defeated Illinois State. Take Valparaiso. 

1.5 units on Valparaiso +9 (-106) (risk 1.5 to return 2.92)
Result:
LOSS
Final
1H
2H
F
Valparaiso Beacons
34
30
64
Illinois State Redbirds img
34
52
86
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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