This isn't nearly the lopsided matchup envisioned before the season began. Illinois State was the preseason favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference. However, the Redbirds are just 8-6 in conference play while Valparaiso is only one game behind them at 7-7. The Beacons are playing well, too. They just upset defending Missouri Valley Conference champion Drake, 81-76, this past Monday on the road as a 3.5-point underdog. Valparaiso is 3-1 in its last four games and is on a huge point spread roll. The Beacons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. At 13-12 overall, Valparaiso has its first winning record through 25 games since 2018-2019. Valparaiso defeated Illinois State, 77-71, as a 6.5-point home underdog on Jan. 7. That was the 13th time in the last 15 meetings the Beacons have defeated Illinois State. Take Valparaiso.
This pick was released to clients on February 12, 2026 at 12:46PM ET.
Valparaiso at Illinois State
February 12, 2026
1.5 units on Valparaiso +9 (-106) (risk 1.5 to return 2.92)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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