Utah State at Purdue

In their first game, Zach Edey had the first 30-point, 20-rebound game in the NCAA Tournament since 1995 and Purdue convincingly got a 78-50 first-round win over Grambling State. But how quickly people forget this Purdue squad losing to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year. The Boilermakers are on a mission to undue that memory similar to Virginia in 2019 when it won the national championship after losing to No. 16 seed UMBC the year before and I think they go deep, if not win this entire thing. But, I think this is too many points in this game. Utah State defeated TCU 88-72 to win its first NCAA Tournament game in its past 11 tries. Isaac Johnson scored 19 points for the Aggies, who shot 55 percent. The Aggie were 14-5 on the road this year and they are excellent from the field (49.5%) and from the charity stripe (72%). They match up very nicely against Purdue, having gone 17-7 ATS since last season vs. teams like the Boilermakers who make 8+ three point shots per game. The Aggies have covered six straight after notching an upset win and they are now 14-5 ATS the past three seasons in tournament games. Meanwhile, Purdue is just 5-15 ATS over that span during March. The Boilermakers are also just 3-12 ATS the past two seasons following a blowout 20+ point win and 2-14 ATS after holding an opponent to 60 or fewer points. Purdue went UNDER by 9.5 points against Grambling State and the Boilermakers allow opponents only 69.6 points per game. a .417 field goal percentage and .313 on 3-pointers. Take the dog and the UNDER in this one.