UNC Greensboro at Gonzaga

NC-Greensboro can play any style and has the kind of balance needed this time of the season. They have a terrific one-two offensive punch in guard Francis Alonso (15.6 ppg) and forward Marvin Smith (12.3 ppg), plus can throw 6-10 James Dickey (8.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg) at the Gonzaga frontcourt. NC Greensboro ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (62.4 points per game) and is on an 11-5 spread run. NC-Greensboro opened the season against Virginia and covered in a 60-48 game, and won at NC State (81-76) as a +8 dog in an uptempo battle. NC-Greensboro is 12-4 OVER the total against teams that shoot 37%+ from three-point range. Gonzaga made it to the NCAA championship game last season but lost four of their top five scorers. Gonzaga has the marquee name, but is overvalued on a 5-11 spread run, plus 4-12-1 ATS following a spread cover. The Zags will push the tempo but that's fine with NC-Greensboro, as Gonzaga is 7-1 OVER the total in non-conference games. The Zags are also 64-43 OVER away from home against teams with winning percentages between 60%-80%. Look for an uptempo game and a close one. Take UNC-Greensboro ATS as my NCAA Tournament Round One Game of the Year and also play the OVER.