UL Monroe at North Texas

The Warhawks have been dismal on the road this season and are coming off an embarrassing 74-46 loss to Alabama. That's why this line is as big as it is. But, Monroe isn't as bad as that and North Texas isn't that good. They lost their last game by double-digits and have allowed 72 points per game on the season. Under Johnny Jones, the Mean Green are a horrible 29-45 ATS as a favorite including 22-35 ATS as home chalk. Road teams coming off three straight losses that are coming off a week or more of rest are 54-24 ATS (69%) over the past five seasons. Needing to break out of their skid, and having eight days to prepare for this game, I think Monroe fights hard and stays within this large number.