Texas State at Arkansas State

Texas St. and Arkansas St. are each 9-8 heading into this game. This total is set lower than expected due in part to the poor Arkansas St. shooting in their last two games where they were 35-116 from the field, connecting on a woeful 30%. Compare that with their previous 10 games, where they shot 39.8% or better, and you can see the drop-off. Texas St. has shot the ball poorly in their last four games and all four stayed UNDER, so we have a lot of feedback in this game for a total set lower than a season-long expectation, as a lot of recency bias has sent this total down. I see an opportunity here and will make the play on the OVER.