Texas at Purdue

Purdue seemed to look a lot better early in the season, and while this is still a dangerous team, the Boilermakers have not played to their expected level. They are an ugly 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games with the only cover coming against a much more limited Yale team in their tourney opener. While they have occasionally shot the ball well, the shooting has abandoned this team for the most part, and they have spent a lot of time on the brink of losing. They have three of their seven losses coming in their last seven games. Texas has become fully prepared for this game as their last 10 games saw many vs. top 10 teams, and it should not be intimidated at all vs. Purdue. Painter is 18-36 ATS at Purdue when his team has failed to cover three of their last four. I like Texas to cover here. Also, back the OVER in this one. The Boilermakers are 67-42 to the OVER under Painter in neutral-court games, including 13-3 OVER when the total is in this range (135 to 139.5). In post-season tournament games, Painter's team is 19-10 to the OVER. Take Texas and the OVER.