Texas at Memphis

We liked Texas over Stanford and they didn't dissapoint. As we stated in our writeup for that game, the late stages of this tournament are about quality guard play and it doesn't get any better than Augustin and Abrams. They took one of the best inside games in the country and made it irrelevant with their quickness. Now, we get the Longhorns plus 3.5 points and we are loving it. Sure, Memphis is the #1 seed but Texas is as good or better than the Tigers. The talk of Memphis early in the tournament focused on whether their horrendious free-throw shooting would hurt them. This team hits 59.1% from the line. 59%!! Well, so far they have cruised and it hasn't been an issue. But guess what? The further they go here, the better teams they face. The further they go, the more likely there will be a close game with increased pressure. The further they go, the more likely free throws will decide the outcome of the game. In the first round Memphis was a 26-point favorite. Then 9.5. Finally 5.5 last game. Now the line is down to 3.5. Guess what - we are now in that range where this could very well play the deciding role. And, when backing an underdog, we know that often times you can lose your bet in a close game as the favorite gets up late and the underdog must foul. Typically, the favorite hits 70%-80% of their free shots and often times turns a close game into a big win, covering the spread. Well, if Memphis is up late and Texas must foul, we have a 4+ out of 10 shot they are going to miss their charity throws. But, we aren't convinced Memphis will be up. Texas's defense has been playing as well as Memphis' of late. They are clicking. The Longhorns are 15-8 ATS this season vs. great defensive opponents (those holding foes to 42% or less from the field) so don't assume Memphis' great defense will shut them down. Texas has covered the spread in three of their last five games and 11 of their last 16. Meanwhile, Memphis is just 2-4 ATS in their last six and 6-12 ATS in their last eighteen. We believe Memphis to be slightly overrated and Texas slightly underrated. We give Texas an even shot at winning this game outright and in a close game, we like their chances a lot. Unless it's a Memphis blowout, the Tiger's terrible free-throw shooting could be the difference here so we'll take the dog and the points.