Texas Arlington at Arkansas State

Texas-Arlington has played well despite a poor record and a brutal schedule. Texas-Arlington lost to Gonzaga (72-66) as a +15 point dog, lost at Nevada (80-73) in a close one, and at Houston (71-63) as a +14 dog. They are 11-5-1 ATS against winning teams, including 10-4-1 ATS versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. They've been in the Sun Belt title game in each of the last two years. Arkansas State has had a much easier schedule and they're coming off a 13-19 campaign. Arkansas State is 7-16 ATS against teams that allow 42% shooting or less. And Texas-Arlington is 39-22 ATS off a road loss, plus 20-4 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. Play Texas-Arlington.