South Alabama at Western Kentucky

Here we go again with the Hilltoppers. They lost most of their NCAA Tourney team from a year ago, and were supposed to be in a rebuilding year. Twenty-one wins later, they are back in the Sun Belt Championship game looking down the barrel at another bid. This is a team that has steadily gotten better as the influx of talent is maturing, and W. Kentucky finished the season 14-2, after a 7-6 start. The Jaguars were supposed to be here, but not against W. Kentucky and now face a team that has already beaten them twice this season. The Jags have not finished strong, going just 4-10 ATS in their last 14, and are now just 5-14 ATS against teams with winning records. Contrast that with the Hilltoppers who are now 23-9-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, and have run their string at neutral sites to 7-0 ATS in their last seven appearances as a favorite. I have to back the Hilltoppers here.