Providence at Baylor

Looking at what these teams have done this season equates to a closer matchup than what is indicted by the line here. They both get a lot of mileage out of their backcourts, and are both equally are equipped on the glass, so the separation here suggests a much more competitive game. The difference I see here is that Providence showed signs of development late in the season, and played in a conference that saw eight teams make it to the dance, with a ninth sitting out (UConn), because of poor APR scores. Baylor comes in at just 10-21 ATS following a win in their last 31, and have had consistency issues. They sit at just 5-12 ATS at home vs. a road team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Providence has enough to stick around here, so go with the dog and back the Friars.