Oklahoma at North Carolina

Is laying -310 crazy? As a general rule, across all favorites of this size, it might be. But sports betting is about identifying value and pouncing. The break-even winning percentage for a -310 favorite is about 76%. If you placed 100 bets at -310 on teams and they won 76 of the 100 bets, you'd break even. Anything below 76 and you lose and anything above 76 and you win. So, if we can convince ourselves that in these games, the favorites will win more than 76 times, then it's a good bet. Now, if we expect 77 wins or maybe even 80 wins, it might make sense to pass. The value is low. But what if we expect much more than 76? Then it's worth consideration! Given that these two teams qualify for my system that is now 57-1, my expectation is much higher than 76%. With 57 wins out of 58, we have a win rate of 98.3%. If we use that figure, then we would expect 98 wins out of 100 (instead of 76)! The "fair moneyline" on these games would be -5700, and we are laying just -310. Now, granted, 98% is probably a bit too optimistic. But we have a lot of "wiggle" room between 76 and 98. So, I think there's tremendous value on these moneyline plays and I'm going with them each for 5-units as well.