North Carolina at Duke

We are really looking forward to watching the latest installment in one of the best rivalries in all of sports. The #6 Blue Devils host the top-ranked Tar Heels. Both teams are 13-2 in the ACC. This game will decide the conference title and the seeding for the upcoming tournament. NC is getting more press thanks to possible player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and a seven game winning streak. But, we think that has forced this line to be off, as we think Duke should be favored by more. Cameron will be rocking beyond belief here and we think that gives Duke a distinct advantage. The Blue Devils are perfect (15-0) at home this season. They have already proven they can beat the Heels, taking care of business in Chapel Hill on February 6th. That game wasn't even close as Duke won by 11 on the road. Duke has the better defense, averaging 64.7 ppg allowed at home this season vs. NC's 74.0 allowed on the road. That's over 13 p oints of difference! Another way to look at the strength of these defenses is to compare how they affect their opponents' offenses. This season, all Tar Heel opponents have averaged 72.1 ppg yet they have averaged 72.9 vs. North Carolina. So, NC is allowing their foes to score more than they normal average! Duke on the other hand is holding foes to 68.8 overall, 3 points less than their overall average. Big difference. And the offensive edge? Goes to Duke too! They are getting 89.2 per game here while the Tar Heels average 85.6 per game on the road. NC has revenge motivativation you say? Well, yes. But is it a revenge avantage? No. Teams revenging a loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a road win, scoring 85+ points are just 15-45 ATS the past five seasons. In other words, revenge doesn't necessarily work, especially if the team that one the first game is VERY good. The Blue Devils are that good. They are 6-0 ATS this season at home vs. college basketball's elite (those teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg). They are 10-3 ATS overall at home. This is a team that gets up for big games. Under Coach K, they are 58-40 ATS in Saturday games and 11-3 ATS at home vs. explosive offensive teams (those averaging 84+ ppg). It doesn't get much bigger than this and in Duke we have the better team statistically on both sides of the ball. They have proven they can beat the Heels and they don't crumble under pressure. Finally, they are at home which gives this team a huge edge and we have to lay a very small number. Dukies here.