Montana State at Boise State

It is becoming apparent that the Broncos aren't quite as good as the oddsmakers have factored them to be. They have really struggled as a favorite and when posted as a chalk of more than 3, they are 0-4 ATS. The Bobcats are much better than their record, with 4 losses vs. quality opponents in Nevada, Southern Miss, Oregon and Memphis. They are 7-0 otherwise. They have really flown under the radar as they are now 11-0 ATS as a road dog of 7-12.5 in their last 11. The school isn't recognized, so they usually get a bump in the line playing against a named school, but their ability certainly passes the test. I'll go with Montana State here.