Illinois State at Niagara

The Redbirds were a hot team to open the season with a perfect 14-0 mark, but then stumbled to go 5-5. It wasn't as bad as it looked however, as two of the losses came in OT, and none of the other three were by more than six points. They are now again playing good and have now won five of their last six, three of which were on the road. Niagara is chasing Siena in the MAAC, and saw a seven-game winning streak come to an end in their last game. That streak is a bit misleading as no team was ranked above No. 168 in the RPI. They have played good vs. cupcakes but the fact is that this Niagara team has not beaten a team all year in the RPI top 100 (they are 0-3). The Redbirds are a much better team, and I like them with the points here as well as the OVER. Niagara hoists 23 three point attempts per game and Illinois State is 12-4 OVER vs. teams that average 21+ long range shots per game. The Redbirds are also 8-1 OVER this season when coming off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Niagara is 15-5 OVER the past three seasons after allowing 80+ in their last game. Take the dog and the OVER here.