East Carolina at Southern Mississippi

The Golden Eagles really went soft in the early going winning three of their first five games vs. non-Div1 competition, and claimed their fourth a bit later. That is four automatic wins tacked on to a team that is 10-8 on the season. The real record is 6-8 when you get right to it, so they are over-valued in this one by quite a bit. East Carolina hasn't been knocking down the wins, but that isn't what matters here. What does matter is that they are 5-1 ATS when posted as a double-digit dog, and I think they are a "false" double-digit dog here because Southern Miss has a very suspect record. The Golden Eagles aren't exactly taking it out on teams with a winning percentage of .400 or less as they are just 0-5 ATS in their last fivr. I'll go with the overlay here, and play on East Carolina.