Duke vs. Virginia

A classic March-style matchup: Rebounding or guard play? Duke has the inside game edge. The Blue Devils had a +16 rebound margin when they played Virginia last month. But Virginia still won the game, 69-62 in OT, as Duke turned it over 22 times. Duke is 8-16 ATS after playing two straight as a favorite, as well as 3-10 ATS after a spread cover. Guard play is a huge key during March tournament action and Virginia is tops in the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as No. 1 in points allowed and third in field goal shooting defense. Duke had to play a close one with Miami yesterday with five starters topping 32 minutes, but Virginia had a laugher over Clemson, 76-56, with only 3 starters topping 30 minutes. Virginia is on a 15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS run and is 50-30 ATS away from home after having won 12 or more of their last 15 contests. And Virginia is 39-21 ATS after back-to-back games committing eight or fewer turnovers. Play Virginia.