Dayton at Saint Louis

Dayton is 5-3 in conference action. They're 2-1 ATS in their last three as an underdog, and this is the biggest they've been as a dog all season. The defense is sixth in the 14-team Atlantic 10 in points given up (69.3 per game) and fifth in shooting allowed (.427), while the offense is fourth from the free-throw line (.751) and No. 1 in turnover margin (+4.43). Meanwhile, first-place Saint Louis ranks ninth in turnover margin (-0.38). Saint Louis has failed to cover two of its last three as 9- and 10.5-point favorites. Dayton swept the series last year, 71-63 and 75-67 - including as an underdog on this court - and has more than enough to keep this one close. Play Dayton.