Baylor vs. Kentucky

The value with this play is Kentucky on the money-line to win the game. As stated yesterday, certain favorites in the NCAA tournament in later rounds rarely lose and Kentucky qualifies for this system today. After yesterday's 3-0 performance on such teams, this system is now 54-3 over the past nine seasons. Baylor has had a great schedule in tournament play, taking on No. 14 South Dakota State, No. 11 Colorado and No. 10 Xavier.  That luck runs out now facing No. 1 Kentucky. The Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. They come off a win over Xavier, but the Baylor post players were not double-teamed most of the game, so they were able to exploit in the low post. That won't be the case against the dominant Kentucky frontcourt anchored by 6-10 Anthony Davis. This Baylor team can be pushed around against quality teams as we saw in the Big 12 tournament when they lost 90-75 to Missouri allowing .538% shooting.  They also lost to Mizzou during the regular season (72-57), along with defeats to Kansas (68-54)  and Kansas State, all teams that can pound the low post. Kentucky has only two losses all season, one by a point to Indiana even though they shot 55%. It's a heavy price, but worth a play given the odds. A record of 54-3 is 95%. A fair line on a 95% play is -1900 so getting this at -400 is a great value. Play Kentucky on the money-line.