Alabama at Arkansas

Alabama has proven worthy of this big spread, with a 7 point loss at Florida, 10 point set-back at Georgetown, and 13 point loss at A&M. Those are all better teams than the Razorbacks. The Tide is shooting well enough at 47.8% from field, and 38% from 3 to hang tough here. The Tide has taken care of the ball very well, with just 12.4 turnovers per game and an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio. The top three ballhandlers dishing out 157 assists with just 71 turnovers, better than 2 to 1 ratio. Four of the top five scorers are connecting on over 40% from three and that will make them a tough out here. Arkansas has had some meltdown games, with difficult to understand loss at home to Appalachian State, neutral court burial to Providence by 16, and a double-digit loss to Oklahoma. Decent teams like Auburn, Missouri and Baylor have stuck close. The numbers look good, but the answer is found in 17.5 turnovers commited a game, and negative assist to turnover margin as a team which costs them possessions and points. We like the Tide to battle them to the wire.