North Carolina Tar Heels vs Villanova Wildcats Point Spread Picks

It's been an impressive run for #2 seed Villanova, but they bang into a team bigger, deeper, and better. Villanova has one dominant low post player in 6-11 senior Daniel Ochefu (10 points per game, 7.6 rebounds per game), but #1 seed North Carolina has four. 6-9 senior Brice Johnson (16 points per game, 10 rebound per game), 6-9 junior Kennedy Meeks (12 points per game), 6-8 junior Isaih Hicks (10 points per game), and even 6-10 Joel James overwhelmed Syracuse down low. The Heels finished with 50 points in the paint. North Carolina is clicking at the right time, winning 10 games in a row, the last five by double digits. The Tar Heels are 16-5-1 ATS at neutral sites. The sparkplug on offense is senior guard Marcus Paige (12 point per game) on a team that finished #1 in the ACC in scoring (82.9 points per game), #2 in field goal shooting (47.8%). Don't overlook this defense, though, which was #2 in field goal shooting allowed (41%) in the best conference in the country. UNC leads the all-time series, 11-4. That includes 5-1 against the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, with the most recent a 78-71 March tourney win three years ago. Under Roy Williams, the Tar Heels are 112-47 after a momentum-building double-digit win and 62-18 after scoring 80+ points in back-to-back games. North Carolina is also 19-3 over the past two seasons in neutral-court games. Villanova coach, Jay Wright is just 44-58 straight-up when facing elite teams (teams at .800 or better). And against the best of the best (teams like North Carolina who outscore their opponents by 12+ points per game after 15+ games), Wright’s teams are just 9-26. North Carolina has the more talented team again and will get the victory. Play North Carolina on the moneyline.

Jay Bilas and Villanova have had some great offensive teams in recent seasons, but not this year. Villanova is ranked No. 8 in the Big East in scoring and No. 12 in field goal shooting, just 41.5% from the field. Both of these teams are young and played much better on offense at home than on the road. Villanova has sophomore JayVaughn Pinkston and freshman point guard Ryan Arcidiacono, so how good will this offense click away from home on the big national stage with all this youth? The UNDER is 5-0 in the Wildcats last five non-conference games and 4-0 UNDER the total in their last four NCAA Tournament games. Speaking of youth, North Carolina is short on experience, too, led by sophomore James Michael McAdoo, junior Reggie Bullock, sophomore P.J. Hairston and freshman Marcus Paige. The UNDER is 5-0 in the Tar Heels' last five contests against the Big East, while Villanova is 6-2-1 UNDER the total against the ACC, so the offenses of both won't shine like they do at home. Go with the UNDER.