The Dog looks at three main things in selecting spread winners in college basketball:
- Measurable evidence in historical statistical data from current and past seasons within the last several years
- Against-the-Spread (ATS) trend data
- Intangibles and the "sniff test"
The first statistical trends that I look at in NCAA basketball are defensive. These include forced turnovers and points allowed. I also look at the team's ability to protect the ball (turnovers committed), three-point shooting, field goal percentage, and their ability to put up points as evidenced by points per game. These categories are analyzed in home and away games from the current season.
I also study and analyze ATS performances from the current season (and especially recent games), and the historical ATS results from past seasons. ATS numbers and trends are reviewed within and outside the conference prior to making my college basketball picks.
Finally, I take into account intangibles such as recent performance and whether a team is significantly better or worse than in previous seasons. Gathering all of this information generally results in between 3 and 8 games per night as a first-pass. This list is then further narrowed-down to a few choice selections, the best of which are provided as premium selections.