Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls Point Spread Picks

South Florida has won 11 in a row, and it has covered the spread eight of 10 after cruising through the American Conference tournament with easy wins against Charlotte and Wichita State. The Bulls have a lot of talent and depth, and, most of all, they are a physical team, which is what has been giving Louisville trouble this season. South Florida features balanced scoring with five players averaging double figures, led by Wes Enis with 16.5 points per game. It allows opponents to shoot 41.9 percent overall and 35.2 percent on 3-pointers. Louisville has split its past eight games (2-6 ATS), and it comes off a 78-73 loss to Miami, Florida, in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. South Florida has gone UNDER nine of 10 games, and Louisville has stayed UNDER five of seven. The Bulls are 11-3 UNDER in Thursday games, and they have allowed just 59.7 points in their past three games. Two picks to start: Take South Florida on the moneyline, and bet the UNDER. 

Louisville is one of the strongest teams in the nation, sitting at 21-4. How can lowly South Florida hang here? Look ahead. The Cardinals have a huge game vs. #7 Cincinnati on deck in four days and I think that affects their ability to cover this huge number. Louisville beat USF 86-47 on the road in the first match, so how can they take things seriously here? Meanwhile, the Bulls have reason to show up. They want to avoid another embarrassment and they are trying to avoid a season-high four game losing streak. The Bulls have actually played better on the road this year than at home. They score less, but play better defense and their record is better, both SU and ATS, when on the road. In Louisville, Rick Pitino owns a losing ATS record at home after a game as a home favorite. He's also 23-34 ATS after scoring 75+ points in three straight games. And, he's just 28-42 ATS at home after four straight games as a favorite. Letdown here - play South Florida.

Louisville hit a bump in the road for a bit, but they have gone from an overrated team to one that is now underrated. This team plays 40 minutes of pressure defense, and has an All-American in the backcourt in Russ Smith, who has produced 18 or more points in eight straight games. Louisville is back playing strong on defense and banging the glass, and they pounded UConn by 15 off the glass in their last game. Louisville has had their way in this series at 27-4 in the last 31 meetings, and South Florida has limited offense with their top two scorers, averaging 10+ points per game, both shoot 42% or less, and won't find room vs. a sticky Louisville defense. The Cardinals are now 43-20 ATS following a win, and own this gym, as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips here. Lay the points, and play on Louisville.