Kentucky Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread Picks

Kentucky is a very young team on the Final Four stage Saturday. Not only that, they have the added pressure of being the first undefeated team to get this far since UNLV in 1991 (and the heavily favored Rebels lost). Kentucky has not been invincible, going overtime in back-to-back games in the weak SEC and struggled the last game against Notre Dame. Kentucky is 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. All of that will be a concern against a brilliant defensive team in Wisconsin, one with incredible efficiency on offense. Oh, and the Badgers have one of the biggest and deepest frontcourts in college basketball. Seven-foot senior Frank Kaminsky (18 points per game, 8 rebounds per game), 6-9 junior Sam Dekker (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and 6-7 sophomore Nigel Hayes (12.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg) are a handful. Wisconsin also led the Big 10 in defense, allowing just 57.8 ppg. Notre Dame was outstanding all season with offensive efficiency and Wisconsin is also brilliant at ball movement. Even in defeat, Notre Dame made it a game by getting to the rim at will. The Irish got 20 of their 26 field goals on dunks or layups. Notre Dame had 10 in the first half and 10 in the second half. Meanwhile, their 40 points in the paint were tied for the most allowed by Kentucky this season. Wisconsin just hung 79 and 85 points the last two games on strong all-around teams (North Carolina, Arizona). The Badgers were second in the Big 10 from the free throw line (.762%), second in FG shooting (48%) and outscored conference opponents by a whopping +15. Wisconsin is 21-7-1 ATS in non-conference games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. This is an evenly matched game, so grab the talented, veteran-laden and versatile dog. Play the points on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is not getting the respect they deserve. They are the higher seeded team instilled as an underdog here. But the Badgers are hot at the right time, having won 12 of their last 14 games. This team has great balance with 6-8 sophomore Sam Dekker (14 points per game) and 7-foot junior Frank Kaminsky (13 ppg, 6 rpg) up front, plus a veteran backcourt of senior guard Ben Burst (13 ppg) and junior Traevon Jackson (11 ppg). You take away one area of the Badgers offense and they have plenty of punch elsewhere on which to fall back. This Kentucky team was good in SEC play defensively and at the free throw line, but not great in field goal shooting defense (ranked #6 in the SEC) and #7 in scoring defense. And they were very weak at defending the three allowing .319% shooting (#11 in the SEC). By contrast, Wisconsin ranked second in the Big 10 at the line (75%). Wisconsin has outstanding ball movement and unselfish play from being together so long. Meanwhile Kentucky is the first team to start five freshmen in an Elite 8 win since Michigan in 1992. This is the point in which I think their youth catches up with them. The Badgers have not lost to a non-Big 10 team this year, and some of their early season wins were over fellow NCAA Sweet 16 teams Florida (59-53) and Virginia (48-38). Wisconsin is 16-4 straight-up in road games this year and 12-5 ATS in road games vs. winning teams and 7-1 ATS in neutral-court games this season. They are also on a 10-1 ATS run in non-conference games. Play Wisconsin to advance to the Finals.