Kansas Jayhawks vs Villanova Wildcats Point Spread Picks

Justin Moore will be missed as he is out with an injury, but Villanova still plays great defense and that will keep this game close as the Wildcats have slowed down their games and winning despite not shooting well. The Wildcats finished just 15-for-52 against Houston and still won and covered as they held the Cougars to 29.8 percent shooting. Villanova has won nine in a row with a 6-3 ATS record and Kansas doesn't have a lot of great shooters other than Remy Martin. Villanova is holding teams to 21 percent from 3-point range in the tournament and it has covered four of its last five versus teams with .600 or higher winning percentages and the Wildcats are 21-6 ATS their past 27 NCAA Tournament games. The Jayhawks are just 7-20 ATS their past 27 games after winning by at least 20 points their previous game. Take the points with Villanova.

A heavyweight matchup in the Final Four will have Villanova squaring off against Kansas. Kansas played a great game vs. Duke, and were expected to have a tough time rebounding against the Duke bigs, but shockingly out-rebounded the Blue Devils by 15, and dominated the offensive glass. Kansas has improved dramatically on defense, and have lost just twice since February 10th. The two losses were game that they allowed 50% or better shooting, all other games were won. After shooting 50%+ in six-of-eight games, Villanova has not shot the ball as well since, at just 50%+ in two of their last six, and shot horrible against Texas Tech at just 33%. The good news for Nova is the fact that they have held four of their last five opponents to less than 39% shooting. I think the Alamo Dome is going to take some getting used to by both teams, and shooting may be a bit off. The fact that both teams seem to be stepping up on defense is going to enhance a lower-scoring game. Villanova seems to be a team that may have peaked to early in the season, while Kansas seems to be peaking right now, and will have even more confidence for this one after taking down Duke. Play Kansas and the UNDER.

This should be a great game, as both teams are playing at a very high level. Villanova has won their three games on their way to the Elite 8 by a total of 72 points. Kansas has won their three games by a total of 54 points, so something has to give in this one. Villanova is a good shooting team, but right now they are sizzling hot, connecting on nearly 60% of their shots in the tournament, and it seems like everyone on the team is dialed in. They are knocking down the three-point shot at an alarming rate. I think it is the shooting along with the fact that the Wildcats simply does not turn the ball over. Villanova has turned the ball over fewer than 10 times a game in their last eight, while turning their opponent over 14 times a game in their last nine. Kansas has 72 turnovers in their last five or 14.4 per contest, and have a negative turnover advantage in the tournament, despite the three wins. That comes back to bite them in this one. Take the points on Villanova.