Gonzaga Bulldogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Point Spread Picks

North Carolina has had two days of rest, which is key as it gave rest to starting guard Leaky Black, who was dealing with a sprained right foot. North Carolina has covered four of its last five as an underdog, including a recent 78-74 straight-up victory over Oregon. North Carolina is 54-28 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and is a big dog to a Gonzaga squad off of two straight dogfights against Washington and Arizona. Gonzaga is 5-15 ATS at home against teams who are called for three of fewer fouls per game than their opponent. North Carolina has won the last three meetings and has more than enough depth and talent to keep this close. Play North Carolina.

This is a top 20 showdown....and a long road trip for Gonzaga. Gonzaga just lost to Tennessee on a neutral court in Phoenix and things don't get any easier here. Tennessee lost its top player down the stretch but still won the game with 16 offensive rebounds. North Carolina is 4-0 straight-up at home and loaded with star power averaging 93.3 points per game. The Tar Heels are outrebounding their foes by 13.3 per game. North Carolina has won two of the previous three meetings, including in the 2017 NCAA title game, 71-65. Back the home team to win the rematch. Play North Carolina on the moneyline.

Gonzaga is one of the few teams that can match North Carolina's interior play as freshman center Zach Collins showed against South Carolina. Collins scored 14 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in crucial minutes as seven-footer Przemek Karnowski recovered from getting hit in the eye. Karnowski averages 12.3 points and 5.8 rebounds, and the Zags won in spite of an off night by Johnathan Williams, who was just two of four from the floor while scoring only seven points. Nigel Williams-Goss led Gonzaga with 23 points, but it was the defense that was the deciding factor as the Gamecocks were held to just a 37.9 shooting percentage. North Carolina escaped with a 77-76 win over Oregon, and the Tar Heels, once again, had some lapses as they did against Arkansas and Kentucky earlier in the tournament. Point guard Joel Berry is obviously not 100 percent healthy playing on an injured ankle, and he was two of 14 shooting against the Ducks. Kennedy Meeks led the Tar Heels with 25 points and 14 rebounds, Justin Jackson added 22 points, but North Carolina shot just 36.8 percent. Gonzaga has but one loss on the season and holds the edge defensively allowing opponents a 36.5 field goal percentage compared to 41.6 for the Tar Heels. Also, the Zags shoot 50.8 percent on offense as opposed to 46.6 percent for North Carolina. Gonzaga is 9-2-1 after an ATS loss and 34-15-2 ATS its last 51 games overall. North Carolina has struggled all season long vs. teams like Gonzaga that can make the long ball. The Heels are just 2-8 ATS on the road vs. teams that make 37%+ from beyond the arc. The knock on the Zags has always been that they never play anyone. Well, Gonzaga has taken on all comers this season and they have gone 13-4 ATS vs. the best teams, teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points per game. We are getting line value here due to the names on the front of the jerseys. Gonzaga is the better team and should be favored. Play Gonzaga.