Baylor Bears vs Duke Blue Devils Point Spread Picks

Baylor is on a 7-2 run UNDER the total, allowing 69.2 points per game and 42.9% shooting. They've covered four in a row, including as underdogs to Houston (65-61) and Texas Tech (76-74). The balanced offense has four players scoring in double figures led by senior Norchad Omier (15.8 ppg, 10.9 rpg). Baylor is sixth in the 16-team Big 12 in scoring (76.4 ppg), seventh from long range (34.8%), and sixth from the free-throw line (74.6%). Duke can play defense, too, No. 1 in the ACC in points surrendered (61.5 per game) and shooting allowed (38.4%). Duke failed to cover in the ACC tournament against Georgia Tech, plus has failed to cover as double-digit favorites to Cal, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Seattle, and Incarnate Word. Play Baylor + UNDER the total. 

Baylor had to replace a lot of players (56 percent of its scoring) from last year's squad, and the Bears were doing okay playing mostly home games and no true road games while winning their first nine games. However, they ran into a Michigan State team on Saturday that was determined to make a statement. The Spartans shot to a 30-point first half lead, winning 88-64. Baylor now has to play Duke at Madison Square Garden and the Blue Devils are 7-3, with losses to Arizona, Arkansas, and Georgia Tech. Some tough competition. Duke has had eight days off since defeating Hofstra 89-68, outscoring the Pride 45-29 in the second half. Duke shot 55 percent overall and 50 percent from 3-point range. Kyle Filipowski led the Blue Devils with 28 points. Baylor has gone OVER five of seven and Duke sailed OVER by 12.5 points against Hofstra. Baylor is 5-0 OVER its past five neutral site games and it is averaging 88.4 points. The Blue Devils score 81.6 points, but have the edge defensively. Take Duke and the OVER.