Arizona Wildcats vs San Diego State Aztecs Point Spread Picks

The Mountain West Conference's top team over the past several years is still quietly riding firmly under the radar. The Aztecs are off to a glowing 5-0 start, and are one of the top teams in the country. They will get a measuring stick game taking on the 5-0 and #3 ranked Arizona Wildcats in this one. If you read my ESPN Vegas power rankings yesterday, you know that I think Arizona is overrated at this point. I think they are more like #11 in the nation. Despite having played the likes of Cal Irvine, CS Northridge and Mount St. Mary's, they are not dominating. They are ranked 86th in the nation in scoring and 222nd in rebounding and have failed to cover the number in three of their five games. San Diego State had Arizona on the ropes last March in the NCAA Tournament, and all the players felt as though they let one slip away, and have been focused in Maui hoping for this matchup in the finals. The Aztecs are the more motivated team, playing with purpose. They defend very well, and certainly have enough answers to stay in this one until the end. The Aztecs own an 18-7-1 ATS mark in their last 26 outside the conference, while Arizona is a puzzling 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. the Mountain West, including 1-4 ATS vs. the Aztecs. San Diego State is 5-1-1 in their last seven vs. winning teams and 21-8 UNDER in their last 29 games following a win. Arizona is 6-1-1 UNDER in their last eight vs. winning teams. Back San Diego State and the UNDER in this one.

San Diego State has flaws that will be exposed this game. They are not a great shooting team (.437%), #202 in the nation. SDSU went 1-2 against New Mexico in step-up games, and even lost at home to this Arizona team in a showdown 69-60. San Diego State also got bounced from the Mountain West tourney by New Mexico (64-58), getting shut down on offense. Meanwhile Arizona is scary good, a PAC-12 and national powerhouse, tops in the PAC-12 in rebounds, tops in points allowed (60 per game) and tops in field goal shooting defense (.395% allowed). The Wildcats are also 21-8 ATS in non-conference games. Not many teams have the depth and talent to overcome a loss like injured forward Brandon Ashley, a versatile all-around player who is out. But they got to the PAC-12 title game after wins of 20 and 32 points, losing a close one to red-hot UCLA 75-71.  They beat Gonzaga (84-61) with 8 blocks, 4 by a guard Nick Johnson - the PAC-12 Player of the Year. They set an Arizona record for steals in an NCAA-tourney game with 15 and forced 21 turnovers that became 31 points. When they met in November, Arizona led 39-28 at the half and shot .446% for the game, while SDSU shot 36%. Arizona had a rebound edge of 39-28 and 6-3 in blocks. On a neutral court, the chalk rolls again by a bigger margin. Play Arizona.