Football picksNovember 28, 2020

My Week 12 NFL Picks from the Pound looks at November betting trends, along with a round up of this week’s starting quarterbacks. I also have a free pick from the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. Get a preview and find out how you can get free picks for every sport that I cover, weekly.

November NFL Betting Trends

By the time Baltimore and Pittsburgh get together for their rematch, the calendar will have already flipped to December. For the bulk of Week 12’s NFL games on Sunday, it will still be November and this week I thought I’d reassess some of the monthly trends. The good, the bad and the ugly teams as the stakes start to rise.

A lot of bettors blow off monthly trends and to each their own, but for my money the most valuable month to consider as trend worthy is November. Think of it, in September we are still getting to know the teams. October involves a lot of divisional teams meeting for the first time. December is a huge month, but records are often skewed by teams that drop out of the playoff race, or rest starters in Week 17.

That said, the best three teams in November since 2011 are the Seahawks (22-13 ATS), Colts (22-13 ATS) and Ravens (22-14 ATS).

  • Away from home, Seattle is 10-6 ATS (63%), two of the losses coming this year. Are they due?

Follow @Wunderdog for more NFL trends and winning football picks throughout the week!


Week 12 NFL Picks

As a November road fave of more than 3 points, Seattle has played UNDER five-straight times


Week 12 NFL Picks

The best November dog that is also a dog in Week 12 is Baltimore (6-2 ATS). Flipping to December shouldn’t be a problem.

  • Baltimore has covered its past five consecutive games as a December underdog since 2016.

Note that the title of ‘Worst November Dog’ belongs to Philadelphia (2-13 SU/ATS). Ties in nicely with that Seattle trend above, wouldn’t you say?

The best divisional record belongs to the Indianapolis Colts, who are 10-2 ATS. That includes a current four-game ATS win streak for the Colts, with two blowout wins over these Titans (2018, 2020). Bolstering support for Indianapolis is that fact that at ’16’, the Titans franchise is second only to Washington in number of divisional ATS losses while seeking revenge.

First Divisional Meeting: Bears at Packers
It doesn’t happen often, but when two divisional teams meet for the first time of the season in November, the Bears are 7-3-1 ATS. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost three in a row at home in this position — twice as a double-digit favorite!

QB Carousel Spinning Fast, Furious

There have been a lot of moving pieces throughout the season and this week, it seems like an extraordinary number of teams are taking a spin on the quarterback carousel. In case you are on the fence with any of these matchups, be aware of the following updates for starting QBs.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Mike Glennon will start in place of Jake Luton. Gardner Minshew is still hurting, so the former Buc-Bear-Cardinal-Raider gets the nod. Glennon has a career 36:20 TD-to-INT ratio, but he gets sacked on 8% of his dropbacks. Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in pressures but they are T-8th in sacks with 27. Even with Myles Garrett out, the Browns tallied five QB sacks last week vs. Philly.

Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon Allen will start in Week 12 over QB Ryan Finley. The Giants are 2-0 ATS the past two years off a bye week, and both games were on the road. And don’t look now, but Daniel Jones is on serious win streak away from MetLife (7-0 ATS). The only thing is that he’s been a dog in every game, and this week New York are listed at -6 points.

In my Week 12 NFL Trends and Betting Tips, I pointed out a 66% ATS trend in favor of the Giants but they are indeed, an unfamiliar road favorite. The current NFL odds on this game favor New York -6 with a total of 44.

Get my premium selection on the Giants vs. Bengals in my Week 12 NFL Picks, here!

Kyler Murray (shoulder), Teddy Bridgewater (knee), Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) and Drew Lock (ribs) are all trending towards playing Sunday as well. Sam Darnold (shoulder) is also off the Jets’ injury report but keep an eye on Colts QB Philip Rivers (toe). The veteran signal caller had a limited practice on Friday and he’s listed as questionable. Jacoby Brissett is next in line if Rivers can’t go.

  • In the month of November, divisional teams off a home win are 22-10 UNDER when the total is 50 points or greater.

Note that in the above trend, 12 games with an ATS line within +/- 4 points of Pick em resulted in 2 OVERS and 10 UNDERS. The average total was 52 and the current odds for Tennessee at Indianapolis are O/U 51.5 points.

Free Week 12 NFL Picks

I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. My free Week 12 NFL pick is from the showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.

Kansas City Chiefs (271) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (272)
Sunday, Nov. 29 at 4:25 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3.5 and O/U 56

Last season’s Super Bowl-winning quarterback, Mahomes, goes up against six-time winner Tom Brady, and Mahomes right now looks to have the clear advantage as Brady and the Buccaneers come off a 27-24 Monday night loss to the Rams.

Kansas City won its fifth in a row last week, Las Vegas making the critical mistake of leaving too much time on the clock for Mahomes to engineer yet another last-minute drive. Mahomes finished 34 of 45 for 348 yards as Kansas City outgained the Raiders 460-364.

Like what you see? Sign up for my free Week 12 NFL picks here and get this play along with free picks for every other sport that I cover.

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Sports picksNovember 26, 2020

In my Week 12 NFL trends feature, I’m looking at a handful of Sunday matchups where the road teams are listed as unanimous favorites by online sportsbooks. Are these teams capable of living up to expectations, or will they fall short of the ATS line?

Unfamiliar Road Faves

The New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks are good football teams. They have been good for a long time, each with a Super Bowl trophy on their proverbial clubhouse mantle from the past 11 years. One of the characteristics of a championship team is the ability to go into enemy territory and steal a win. And with those road wins comes respect, both from the book and bettors alike.

All three of those established road warriors are laying points this week, away from home. In reality, laying chalk on the highway during this holiday weekend looks almost like a new wave fashion trend. Everyone is doing it.

  • Nine of 16 (56%) road teams in Week 12 are listed as the odds on favorite to win straight up.

The average number of road favorites this season is 5.6 and since league realignment, there has been an average of only 5.2 away teams laying points per week. Perhaps this season is riding a little on the high side thanks to the perceived lack of home field advantage? Either way, the number could level out by the time Week 17 rolls around.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 12 NFL trends and free picks!


Week 12 NFL Trends

Road favorites off more than 3 points with a losing record are 66% ATS since 2012


Week 12 NFL Trends & Tips

More important than the total number of road faves this week is the cast of characters. Cleveland, Miami… the New York Giants? I don’t know about you, but this seems like a throwback to original Tecmo Bowl, circa 1987!

The Browns have been favored on the road 15 times since 2002, by far the fewest in the league. Miami ranks second-lowest in this department at 22. New York had its run after winning two Lombardi’s, but it has been five years since the Giants were favored on the road more than once in a season.

Houston, Arizona and the Raiders also stand out as unfamiliar road faves, and while the guard has slowly been changing with the emergence of stars like Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray, bettors have to be cautious of how these up and comers will handle new expectations.

Here are some high-percentage Week 12 NFL trends that apply to our unlikely cast of road faves. Click on any of the matchups for more handicapping information.

Las Vegas at Atlanta
Line: Raiders -3 and O/U 45

After beating the Chiefs in Week 5, the Raiders felt the brunt of Covid and were then beat down by the Bucs, 45-20. They are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS since that loss to Tampa, scoring 30-plus points in their past three consecutive games.

  • Non-conference road teams are 32-15 (68%) OVER following a narrow margin loss to division rival.

Arizona at New England
Line: Cardinals -2.5 and O/U 49.5

The Cardinals are 3-2 on the road this year, outscoring opponents 26.8 to 19.8. They were dogs against Seattle and San Francisco, but outside the division, Arizona is starting to establish themselves as a capable road fave.

  • Bill Belichick is 51-25 ATS as an underdog, including a 12-3 ATS mark at Foxboro.

New York at Cincinnati
Line: Giants -6 and O/U 43

The line in this game sort of makes sense when you consider that Cincinnati is handing the ball over to Ryan Finley, following the injury to Joe Burrow. Still, you don’t often see a 3-7 team laying this kind of lumber.

  • The record for road favorites with a losing record when laying more than 3 points is 33-17 ATS (66%).

Cleveland at Jacksonville
Line: Browns -6 and O/U 49

The Jags won a game in Week 1 and are 0-9 since. After putting up a fight vs. Houston and Green Bay, they were obliterated by the Steelers, 27-3.

  • The Browns have a 5-37 SU road record in the second half since 2011.

Cleveland was favored just four times, going 1-3 SU/ATS, but their average margin of defeat was 9.0 points per game.

Miami at New York Jets
Line: Dolphins -7 and O/U 44.5

The Fish were favored six times on the road the past six years and 50% of those games were against these Jets. Miami had won five in a row before the setback in Denver last week and are handing the ball back to Tua Tagovailoa, after benching him in the Rockies.

  • Divisional road faves are 11-3 ATS when coming off a road fave loss since 2010.

Miami is tied for 10th in terms of ‘giveaways’ per game and they rank 4th in net turnover margin at +0.6 per game.

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Football picksNovember 25, 2020

The Thanksgiving Day NFL lineup is ready to roll and I have two picks as well as an in-depth analysis of the Ravens at Steelers rematch, which was moved to Sunday.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers -5 and O/U 45

Here they go again! The AFC’s version of the Black & Blue division features another epic showdown between two powerhouse teams. Last year, Baltimore had everything go its way during a dominating 14-2 regular season. This year, it’s the 10-0 Steelers who have everything clicking.

My Thanksgiving Football Special offers 10% off my NFL + CFB combo, plus 10,000 VIP points!


Thanksgiving Day NFL picks

Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 13-4 ATS in road games vs. high scoring offenses


To buy my my two Thanksgiving Day picks from the Texans-Lions and Washington-Dallas, click here!

Baltimore always gets up for this one and has plenty of motivation to not only knock off a rare late-season unbeaten team but they are fighting for a playoff spot, sitting in third place looking up at the 7-3 Browns. The Ravens aren’t piling up the wins like they did in 2019, but they are talented all-around, outscoring opponents by +73 points — tied for third-best in the NFL. They’ve also won four of five road games, bested only by the Steelers and Chiefs. The defense is Top 10 in yards allowed and versus the pass, and third in points surrendered (19.5 PPG). It’s a run-first offense, tops in the league in rushing (160.5 yards per game), second-worst in passing. But the Ravens have lost three of four struggling to close games out, with losses to the Steelers (28-24), Patriots (23-17), and Titans (30-24) all by a whisker.

Follow @Wunderdog for more on the Thanksgiving Day NFL matchups!

For years, these teams always seem to play defensive nail-biters. Baltimore has won three of the last five meetings by scores of 28-10, 26-23, and 26-14, with the Steelers winning twice, 23-16 and 28-24. In fact, the Ravens have won two straight at Heinz Field, 26-14 and 26-23 in OT. The Ravens are 31-14-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record, plus 6-1 ATS as a road dog.

Visit my NFL Matchups section for betting info on every Week 12 NFL game!

Undefeated Pittsburgh (8-2 ATS) should feel confident but they know how well-coached and tough the Ravens are. For their part, the Steelers are having a magical campaign, with 38-year old QB Ben Roethlisberger (24 TDs, 5 picks, 10 sacks) turning back the clock behind an offense that is fifth in points (30 PPG). The defense leads the way, however, sixth in yards allowed, Top 10 against the run and the pass, third in points (18 pg), No. 1 in turnover margin (+12).

The first meeting on November 1 was a thriller, with the Steelers rallying from a 17-7 halftime deficit to win by four. Baltimore rolled up 457 yards on offense (265 rushing) and allowed just 221 total yards. Normally that would mean something like a 27-10 Ravens’ rout. But the Steelers won the all-important turnover battle, 4-1, including a pick-six. The dog is 19-7-3 ATS when these rivals knock heads and the OVER is 14-6-2 at Heinz Field. Sit back with plenty of popcorn, chips, and brew, because this shapes up as another fun one with a lot more than just bragging rights on the line.

As a reminder, I don’t see any betting value on this game and as a result, I am passing. But I do have premium picks for the Houston at Detroit and Washington – Dallas game, available here!

 

Football picksNovember 20, 2020

My Week 11 NFL picks started off with a Thursday night winner in Seattle. For Sunday, I have eight more premium picks loaded up, including three Max Plays. I was 3-0 with Max Plays last weekend, part of a huge +$4,790 return.

Get on board for Sunday’s action as I look to make it five winning weeks in a row!

Anyone with money on the Bengals at Steelers total in last week’s 36-10 blowout, had a much more vested interest in Cincinnati’s final two drives. Over/Under odds for that divisional tilt opened around 47.5 but UNDER bettors bought it down throughout the week. By the time Bengals’ kicker Randy Bullock booted the opening kickoff, plenty of online betting shops were sitting right on 46, while others had dipped even further to 45 or 45.5.

1.5 to 2 points is a typical range for totals to move during the week, with weather and injury updates often triggering the action. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were one of six games to finish within three points of the closing total in Week 10 but as it stands, 2020 is actually one of the widest Over/Under variance seasons of the past 30 years.

The four seasons with the highest Over/Under variance since 1990 were as follows:

  • 1995: 2.4 points per game
  • 2002: 2.1 points per game
  • 1998: 1.8 points per game
  • 2020: 1.7 points per game

It all evens out in the wash, as they say, and the margins listed above are comparable to the typical line movement you could see on any given Sunday. But what about games with high variance? More importantly, what happens the following week when two teams miss the oddsmaker’s mark by a dramatic measure?

Read on for three big-time betting trends that can factor into your Week 11 NFL picks!


Week 11 NFL Picks

Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson has rushed for only one TD this season, well behind the pace he set with a career-high seven in 2019


Over/Under Variance

The three games in Week 10 with the largest point margins from the closing total were the Texans-Browns (-28.5), Bucs-Panthers (+18.5) and Seahawks-Rams (-15.5).

New England at Houston
Line: Patriots -2.5 and O/U 49

Home teams in the second half of the season are 66% likely to play UNDER following a game where they finished south of the total by more than 24 points. The weather in Cleveland played a massive role in keeping the Texans grounded, but has this week’s total gone too far?

  • The past five years, conference home teams with a total of 42 points or greater are 13-1 (93%) UNDER immediately following a game that stayed UNDER by 24-plus points.

Philadelphia at Cleveland
Line: Browns -3 and O/U 47.5

The Browns are in a similar scenario as the Texans, but they are facing a non-conference foe. There is also this NFL trend to consider, that could offer value on the OVER.

  • Since 2018, home teams are 10-0 OVER following back-to-back games that stayed UNDER by more than 14 points.

Note that the forecast for Sunday calls for showers (100% chance), but only 10-15 mph winds.

Follow @Wunderdog for updates on my Week 11 NFL picks, plus UFC and College Football!

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay
Line: Buccaneers -4 and O/U 48

The Rams are off a divisional home win that followed their bye week. Now they’re on the road against a non-divisional foe, which might set up as a letdown spot except A) it’s Monday Night Football and B) it’s against Tom Brady.

With San Francisco on-deck, this is also a divisional sandwich for the Rams, but the record for teams in this exact spot 15-6 ATS (71%). And I will point out that three of the ATS losses were dogs of +5.5 or more. From an Over/Under perspective, check this trend that is 83% all-time.

  • Tom Brady is 20-4 OVER in home games with a total of 43 or more, after any game where more than 50 points were scored, and the total was cleared by double-digits.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 11 NFL trends and football betting tips!

Free Week 11 NFL Picks

I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. As we countdown towards Sunday, my free Week 11 NFL pick is from the playoff rematch between the Titans and Ravens.

Game: Tennessee (465) at Baltimore (466)
Time: Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern
Odds: Ravens -6 and O/U 49.5

Baltimore finally gets a chance at revenge after getting upset by the Titans in last season’s playoffs, and Tennessee looks much less formidable this time around as it has lost three of its last four following its 34-17 defeat against Indianapolis. Ryan Tannehill went 15 of 27 for 147 yards and a touchdown, and Derrick Henry ran for 103 yards on 19 carries in a losing cause.

The Ravens will be in a foul mood after a listless performance at New England, losing 23-17 on Sunday night. It was Baltimore’s first road loss in 10 games, and Lamar Jackson had just 55 rushing yards on 11 carries.

Sign up for my free Week 11 NFL picks and get this complete writeup sent to your inbox. You can also get my College Football Picks here, and all the rest of my Week 11 NFL Picks including three Max Plays, right here!

 

Football picksNovember 19, 2020

My Week 11 NFL trends preview has the matchup information and betting tips you need to get your head in the game for Sunday’s huge slate. In this installment, I look at the ever-changing QB crop in the NFL, post-bye week stats for head coaches, and the Thursday night showdown between the Cardinals and Seahawks.

Scouting the Next Great Starter

Lately it seems that there has been at least one NFL quarterback making his season debut every Sunday. Alex Smith was up last week in Detroit, completing 69% of his passes for 390 yards in a losing cause. Jake Luton stepped in for Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago and although he is 0-2 straight up, the Jags are 2-0 ATS with a combined six-point margin of defeat against Houston and Green Bay.

The Dallas duo, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert took their turns in Week 8-9. And of course there is Tua Tagovailoa, fifth overall pick of the Dolphins in the 2020 NFL Draft. In three starts, plus a couple of snaps vs. the Jets in Week 6, Tua is completing 63% of his passes for 519 yards. His 10.6 yards per completion doesn’t rank inside the Top 20 among starters, but the second most important stat next to wins, and the one that leads to them more often than not, is TD-to-Interception ratio. Tagovailoa is 5:0 in that department and it has helped make the Dolphins a road favorite this week in Denver.

  • Non-divisional road favorites of less than 7 points are 4-15 ATS in Denver from October out.
  • Since 2015, the road team in this situation is 1-6 SU/ATS and the list of visitors that went away empty handed includes the Packers, Patriots and Steelers.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 11 NFL trends, plus free picks from an expert handicapper!


Week 11 NFL trends, 2020

Rookie QB Tagovailoa is getting excellent support from the run game and his Dolphins defense


Atlanta at New Orleans
Line: Saints -4.5 and O/U 50.5

This week the new starting QB spotlight is on New Orleans, where most signs point to Jameis Winston getting the call in place of Drew Brees. Winston was six for 10 in relief last week, but when he dropped back in the red zone, you could sense his fear and tentativeness. 88 career interceptions, including 30 in 2019 alone, will have a PTSD affect on anyone. The question is whether Winston can get past it after a week of taking first team reps in his new surroundings.

  • Winston’s record as a home favorite with Tampa was 5-10 ATS and in four of five covers, he was laying 3 points or less.
  • As a divisional road dog, Matt Ryan is 13-6 UNDER and when they were here in Week 10 last year, the Falcons beat the Saints 26-9 straight up.

Ryan has covered six of his last seven starts as a road dog, including wins this this year at Minnesota and Carolina. The big concern with Atlanta was the injury riddled defense, that had given up 34.5 points per game (PPG) through Week 4 (0-4 SU). In five outings before their bye, Atlanta trimmed that average down to 22.6 PPG and with a Brees out of the picture, it’s possible this total in the Superdome is a tad overblown.

Week 11 TNF Tip Pool

Arizona at Seattle
Line: Seahawks -3 and O/U 57

The Cardinals took down Buffalo in the final seconds last week with what was an easy Play of the Year candidate. They were on the other end of potential POY in Week 7, when DK Metcalf tracked down Arizona safety Budda Baker for a touchdown-saving tackle, but the Cards came out on top of that shootout by a score of 37-34. Tonight the Hawks get their chance to even the series.

  • Coach Pete Carroll’s home record when seeking revenge is 21-9-2 ATS. The OVER is 20-11-1, bolstered by a current streak of 8-straight to the high-side.

The scores during Seattle’s revenge-fueled, eight-game OVER streak averaged 33-31 in favor of the Hawks. Odds for this game are six points greater than the recent average (51), and while there is no questioning each team’s offensive ability, is it possible this line has gone too far?

  • Divisional totals greater than 50 on TNF have resulted in 3 OVERS and 10 UNDERS.

Access all of my Week 11 NFL selections, including primetime games, right here!

Week 11 Trends and Betting Tips

Teams off a Bye: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets

Bye Week Teams: Bills, Giants, 49ers and Bears

Bye On-deck: NA
*Thanksgiving next week; everyone plays. In Week 13, the Buccaneers and Panthers are scheduled for a break and that will wrap the regular season bye week schedule.

Kansas City at Las Vegas
Line: Chiefs -6.5 and O/U 57

Andy Reid was famous for his post-bye week success in Philadelphia. For the most part, that has continued with the Chiefs. Reid’s post bye record is 14-7 ATS and the UNDER is 15-5-1. The past two years, Kansas City faced the Raiders each time off their bye week and slapped two 40-burgers on the Silver and Black. The finals were 40-33 and 40-9.

Dallas at Minnesota
Line: Vikings -7 and O/U 48.5

Perhaps less famous is the fact that from 2006-14, then Packers coach Mike McCarthy won nine straight games ATS off a regular season bye. McCarthy went 1-3 SU/ATS off a bye from 2015-18, and that’s just part of the reason he’s no longer coaching in Cheeseland. A new start in Dallas, however, could be just what this veteran needed to spark a new streak.

  • As a road dog of +3 or more off a bye, McCarthy’s regular season record is 4-0 ATS. All four games were played away from home.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 11 NFL trends and betting tips!

 

Sports picksNovember 14, 2020

My Week 10 NFL picks are loaded up and ready to fire for Sunday, with seven plays listed at the site. My expert handicapping tips hit 60% last week and I’ve had six of nine winning weeks on the season. Included in this week’s picks are three Max Plays, so let’s not waste anymore time.

In this week’s NFL betting feature, I have some Over/Under betting data and a free pick from the Seahawks at Rams. I’ve also highlighted an angle from the Chargers – Dolphins matchup that is 63% against the spread.

  • NFL Totals through Week 9: 70-55-8 O/U, which equates to the OVER hitting 56%.
  • The only two weeks with more UNDERS were Weeks 6 and 7.
  • Primetime totals through Week 9 = 10 OVERS, 16 UNDERS and 4 PUSHES (61% UNDER).

The three most recent primetime games were Saints at Bucs, Patriots at Jets and Colts at Titans. Very few people would have guessed that Drew Brees and Tom Brady would produce the lowest net score out of those three matchups, but the timing lines up with Over/Under trends from the past decade.

  • Since 2011, primetime games have played OVER at a rate of 53% in the second half of the season.

The likelihood is that the low, 61% UNDER rate from the first half of the season will start to increase. It doesn’t mean that value for UNDER bettors is lost, you just have to be very selective.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 10 NFL trends and betting tips!


Week 10 NFL picks from the Dog

Over the past five seasons, my NFL Max Plays have hit 59% a +$32,730 gain!


Time Trials: Washington at Detroit
Line: Lions -2.5 and O/U 46.5

The Detroit Lions (3-5) are coming into this game off back-to-back lashings by the Colts and Vikings. Detroit allowed 75 points the past two weeks, breaking into the Top 5 this season for points allowed in back-to-back games. Here’s the worst of the worst:

  • Cowboys: 87 points allowed to Seahawks-Browns in Week 3-4.
  • Falcons: 78 points allowed to Seahawks-Cowboys to open the season.
  • Raiders: 77 points allowed to Chiefs-Bucs in Week 5-7 (bye in-between).
  • Texans: 77 points allowed to Titans-Packers in Week 6-7.
  • Lions: 75 points allowed to Colts-Vikings in Week 8-9.

In general, NFL teams suffering from Swiss cheese syndrome are a 57% ATS fade. They have not posted a winning record since 2011, following two games where 75-plus points were allowed. The combined record for these porous defenders in that span is 38-72-1 ATS (35%) and the recent record for home favorites is 6-15-1 ATS (29%).

Another thing to keep in mind is that when facing a subpar time of possession team, Detroit’s record after a bad loss is 21-9 OVER (70%). There is also this nugget, hitting 15-1 OVER the past three years:

  • When the total is greater than 40, the OVER is 33-10 (77%) between two teams that are each coming off a divisional loss.

Cue the mad waiver wire rush by fantasy football fans, looking to Alex Smith as their savior!

Free NFL Pick for Week 10

I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. As we countdown towards Sunday, my free Week 10 NFL pick is from the NFC West.

Game: Seattle Seahawks (269) @ Los Angeles Rams (270)
Time: Sunday 11/15 4:25 PM Eastern
Odds: Rams -2 and O/U 55.5

Seattle is well-coached and a great bounce-back team. Since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, the Hawks are 33-15-4 ATS following a straight-up loss. QB Russell Wilson (28 TDs, 8 INTS) leads one of the best offenses in the NFL that is third in total yards and tops in points scored (34.3 per game).

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Low Margin of Error

This segment focuses on teams that are repeatedly losing games by a small margin. In a league where teams are only guaranteed 16 games per season, leaving too many fish in the water won’t earn you too many seats at the playoff table come January.

Follow @Wunderdog for more NFL trends and winning football picks!

Through nine weeks, there are six teams with an average margin of defeat smaller than 2.3 points per game. Two of them have winning records. The other four are at least two games below .500 and all four have registered multiple losses by a field goal or less.

  1. Falcons (3-6 SU): -0.89 scoring margin
  2. Bears (5-4 SU): -1.33
  3. Raiders (5-3): -1.38
  4. Chargers (2-6): -1.38
  5. Panthers (3-6): -1.78
  6. Vikings (3-5): -2.12

The Chargers lead the pack with three narrow losses. Week 2 against the Chiefs was their first setback, then Week 5 at New Orleans. Adding to the list was a Week 8 loss in Denver, 30-31, and although last week’s 31-26 defeat to Raiders doesn’t technically qualify, the morale in this group must be starting to wane.

Yes, it has been a rough year for rookie QB Justin Herbert but there is hope on the horizon. Once a team has missed the cut on this many close games, they start getting labelled as perennial losers. Oddsmakers adjust and according to my data, the record for these teams in the back-half of the season is 63% against the spread.

The Chargers at Dolphins is the first such game of 2020 and Over/Under bettors may also note that the UNDER in this profile is 68% effective. The current streak is at eight-straight UNDERS.

Get my College Football Picks here, and all the rest of my Week 10 NFL Picks including my Max Plays, right here!

 

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