My Week 12 NFL Picks from the Pound looks at November betting trends, along with a round up of this week’s starting quarterbacks. I also have a free pick from the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. Get a preview and find out how you can get free picks for every sport that I cover, weekly.
November NFL Betting Trends
By the time Baltimore and Pittsburgh get together for their rematch, the calendar will have already flipped to December. For the bulk of Week 12’s NFL games on Sunday, it will still be November and this week I thought I’d reassess some of the monthly trends. The good, the bad and the ugly teams as the stakes start to rise.
A lot of bettors blow off monthly trends and to each their own, but for my money the most valuable month to consider as trend worthy is November. Think of it, in September we are still getting to know the teams. October involves a lot of divisional teams meeting for the first time. December is a huge month, but records are often skewed by teams that drop out of the playoff race, or rest starters in Week 17.
That said, the best three teams in November since 2011 are the Seahawks (22-13 ATS), Colts (22-13 ATS) and Ravens (22-14 ATS).
- Away from home, Seattle is 10-6 ATS (63%), two of the losses coming this year. Are they due?
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As a November road fave of more than 3 points, Seattle has played UNDER five-straight times
Week 12 NFL Picks
The best November dog that is also a dog in Week 12 is Baltimore (6-2 ATS). Flipping to December shouldn’t be a problem.
- Baltimore has covered its past five consecutive games as a December underdog since 2016.
Note that the title of ‘Worst November Dog’ belongs to Philadelphia (2-13 SU/ATS). Ties in nicely with that Seattle trend above, wouldn’t you say?
The best divisional record belongs to the Indianapolis Colts, who are 10-2 ATS. That includes a current four-game ATS win streak for the Colts, with two blowout wins over these Titans (2018, 2020). Bolstering support for Indianapolis is that fact that at ’16’, the Titans franchise is second only to Washington in number of divisional ATS losses while seeking revenge.
First Divisional Meeting: Bears at Packers
It doesn’t happen often, but when two divisional teams meet for the first time of the season in November, the Bears are 7-3-1 ATS. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost three in a row at home in this position — twice as a double-digit favorite!
QB Carousel Spinning Fast, Furious
There have been a lot of moving pieces throughout the season and this week, it seems like an extraordinary number of teams are taking a spin on the quarterback carousel. In case you are on the fence with any of these matchups, be aware of the following updates for starting QBs.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Mike Glennon will start in place of Jake Luton. Gardner Minshew is still hurting, so the former Buc-Bear-Cardinal-Raider gets the nod. Glennon has a career 36:20 TD-to-INT ratio, but he gets sacked on 8% of his dropbacks. Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in pressures but they are T-8th in sacks with 27. Even with Myles Garrett out, the Browns tallied five QB sacks last week vs. Philly.
Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon Allen will start in Week 12 over QB Ryan Finley. The Giants are 2-0 ATS the past two years off a bye week, and both games were on the road. And don’t look now, but Daniel Jones is on serious win streak away from MetLife (7-0 ATS). The only thing is that he’s been a dog in every game, and this week New York are listed at -6 points.
In my Week 12 NFL Trends and Betting Tips, I pointed out a 66% ATS trend in favor of the Giants but they are indeed, an unfamiliar road favorite. The current NFL odds on this game favor New York -6 with a total of 44.
Get my premium selection on the Giants vs. Bengals in my Week 12 NFL Picks, here!
Kyler Murray (shoulder), Teddy Bridgewater (knee), Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) and Drew Lock (ribs) are all trending towards playing Sunday as well. Sam Darnold (shoulder) is also off the Jets’ injury report but keep an eye on Colts QB Philip Rivers (toe). The veteran signal caller had a limited practice on Friday and he’s listed as questionable. Jacoby Brissett is next in line if Rivers can’t go.
- In the month of November, divisional teams off a home win are 22-10 UNDER when the total is 50 points or greater.
Note that in the above trend, 12 games with an ATS line within +/- 4 points of Pick em resulted in 2 OVERS and 10 UNDERS. The average total was 52 and the current odds for Tennessee at Indianapolis are O/U 51.5 points.
Free Week 12 NFL Picks
I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. My free Week 12 NFL pick is from the showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.
Kansas City Chiefs (271) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (272)
Sunday, Nov. 29 at 4:25 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3.5 and O/U 56
Last season’s Super Bowl-winning quarterback, Mahomes, goes up against six-time winner Tom Brady, and Mahomes right now looks to have the clear advantage as Brady and the Buccaneers come off a 27-24 Monday night loss to the Rams.
Kansas City won its fifth in a row last week, Las Vegas making the critical mistake of leaving too much time on the clock for Mahomes to engineer yet another last-minute drive. Mahomes finished 34 of 45 for 348 yards as Kansas City outgained the Raiders 460-364.
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