Hockey picksApril 22, 2021

As the NHL playoff picture tightens up, we are starting to get a clear picture of which teams will contend for the title, and who will be scrapping for the final spots down the stretch.


NHL playoff picture carolina hurricanes aho

2021 Playoff Odds and Probabilities

When the Vancouver Canucks took to the ice Sunday for their first of back-to-back games against first place Toronto, bettors were skeptical, and rightly so. The Canucks hadn’t played since March 24, and their form going into the unplanned break was uninspiring to say the least. Three-straight losses – two of them at home – and a pitiful scoring margin of 14-5.

Vancouver had sunk to the depths of the North division standings. Of course, it was due in large part to the lengthy layoff incurred when 25 players and coaches were placed in COVID protocol. But no matter what the reason, the likelihood of this squad snapping back into midseason form against the division leader was doubtful.

  • Moneyline odds for Toronto winning in Vancouver April 18 went from -280 up to -400.
NHL Playoff picture, odds to win North Division

Not only did the Canucks fight back from a 2-0 deficit, they won the game 3-2 in overtime on captain Bo Horvat’s second of the night. For an encore, the `Nucks doubled up the Leafs 6-3 on Tuesday, saving their best for last. Trailing 3-2, Vancouver scored four times in a 15-minute span. It was a statement game and it served notice to the rest of the North. This team is not going away without a fight.

Montreal chalked up a huge win over Edmonton on Wednesday, giving them an eight-point lead over the Flames and 10-point advantage on the Canucks. Vancouver has five games in hand against the Habs but with a grueling schedule that was adjusted to cram their remaining games in by mid-May, maintaining the high level of intensity we saw against Toronto will be a challenge.

My NHL picks won again last night (2-1, 67%), cashing with the Knights and Wild. Since April 9, I am 23-9 (72%) on the ice for +$7,180. Full season, dime bettors are up +$18,800 with these picks. Grab my NHL picks and get in on the winning!

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NHL Playoff Picture: Central

No sixth-place team with a wafer-thin bench is really striking fear into the hearts of another squad currently inside the playoff bubble, but there are several other races worth keeping tabs on. Take the Central, for example. Dallas currently owns a .556 points-percentage and the Stars have won four in a row. They’re in the midst of an ultra soft scheduling spot with six games against the Jackets and Wings, and taking full advantage.

NHL playoff probability and NHL playoff picture, central division

Nashville and Chicago played a three-point game on Wednesday night. With Tampa Bay trailing the two front runners, Carolina and Florida, it is safe to call this NHL playoff picture a three-team race for fourth. And there can be only one winner.

Since 2017, the Stars have a 129-36 (78%) record when the score at least three goals. Dallas has scored 4-5-3-5 goals during their current win streak and Detroit will have a hard time snuffing out their momentum. Puck line, Over/Under and team total bets are worth considering, but there is conflict here between league trends and team trends

  • NHL road teams like Dallas are 25-7 OVER (78%) off a home win by three of more, when facing a team that’s been on the road for two-plus.

Only the Bruins (60%), Jackets (58%) and Islanders (57%) have posted a greater UNDER percentage than Dallas since 2019.

  • Dallas is 48-17 UNDER in road games with a total of 5.5 the past three years.

The odds for Thursday’s game favor Dallas -185 with a total of 5.5 UN -130. The Stars power play ranks sixth overall at 23.9% and Detroit is 30th at 11.1%. In net penalty kill, the Wings are only 29th, too. Look the Stars to pin their ears back in both games of this doubleheader.

Odds to Win the Stanley Cup

The Colorado Avalanche are a NHL consensus favorite to win the Stanley Cup, despite the fact Vegas leads the West by four points. Colorado has three games in hand against the Knights and before the one-week shutdown, the Avs had won four-straight and nine of their past 10.

NHL-playoff-picture-shutdowns-returns

Colorado will play three games against the Blues starting tonight (April 22), and the Avs hold a 4-1 edge in that series. Next up, the Avs travel to Sin City for a showdown with the Knights.

  • Coming off a previous shutdown, the Avs lost 1-0 to Vegas but responded with back-to-back wins.
  • Since losing to San Jose on March 1, Colorado is on a 19-2-3 run.

Carolina, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Washington are next on the list of Cup favorites and the Hurricanes have a tough match on-deck vs. Florida tonight.

Carolina at Florida
Thursday, April 22, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Hurricanes -115 and 5.5 OV -120

First place in the Central is on the line and each team is coming off a decisive victory. Carolina took down Tampa Bay 4-1 on Tuesday, while Florida dismantled the Jackets 5-1. Panthers rookie Spencer Knight earned the win during his NHL debut and the depth Florida has between the pipes is giving this club a ton of confidence as the prep for the stretch run.

Stay on top of the NHL playoff picture with free picks, trends and tips!

Carolina’s power play ranks second in the NHL at 27.4% and their penalty kill is fifth (84%). Each of these teams ranks Top 5 for shots on goal, so look for the Over/Under odds to increase throughout the day. The main reason bookmakers even opened this line at 5.5 is that the Hurricanes are riding a streak of five consecutive unders. Holding Nashville to one goal in back-to-back games is one thing. When you stifle the Lightning’s top playmakers, though, bookies take notice.

  • Off a win by two or more, home teams are 518-357 UNDER (59%) when playing their fourth game in seven days.
  • Carolina is 14-5 (74%) this season against teams with a winning record, including a 9-1 record in their past 10.
  • Florida is 13-20 (39%) at home against teams with a strong power play.
  • The Panthers are 84-53 OVER (61%) against teams that average more than 29.5 shots per game.

Carolina has won five-straight games between these teams and the past four, Florida scored two goals or less each time. The Panthers offense is averaging 3.2 goals per game on the year, and their past three games, Florida has tallied 14 goals. This should be a great game.

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NHL playoff picture, stanley cup odds

 

Hockey picksApril 17, 2021
NHL winners for saturday

Two more NHL winners on Friday improved my recent record in Hockey to 15-4 (79%). I’ve posted six winning days out of the past nine, raking in +$5,760 for dime bettors in the process. Today there are 11 games on the board and I have trends, updated odds and betting tips to help set the table.

Early Action in the East

The New Jersey Devils are taking on the New York Rangers at 12:30 pm ET, while Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals face off against Philadelphia. The Rangers and Flyers are both in desperate need of a win. While the Rangers are 6-2-2 in their past 10, the 4th place Bruins show little sign of slowing down. Boston shut out the Islanders 3-0 last night, improving Boston’s win streak to three-straight.

New York is listed as a -235 moneyline favorite and they have already beaten the Devils twice this week by lopsided scores of 4-0 and 3-0.

  • During a current four-game win streak against New Jersey, the Rangers have outscored their rival 19-4.

NHL home favorites that have won four-straight against an opponent are 65% likely to win the fifth game as well, but the bookmaker washes out this advantage by charging an average line close to -200. At that rate, you need a 67% record just to break even (implied probability).

When teams meet in a back-to-back, the home favorites record before this season was 29-17 (63%). So far in 2021, the year of the divisional rivalry, the favorite is 8-4 SU, including a record of 7-2 when favored by -200 or more.

  • New Jersey is 9-23 when playing its third game in five days.
  • The Rangers are 36-26 when playing a four-in-seven.

The Devils are in a 1-8 spiral since March 30. New Jersey is 4-14 after losing four of five, and will be hard pressed to mount any sort of attack here.

My NHL winners keep coming this season, as last night’s +$1,210 profit boosted by season-long bankroll to +$16,920. There is less than a month left in the regular season and I’m up +46 games over .500 thus far. Don’t miss my next winner!

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Bubble Battle

The St. Louis Blues looked lost in March, losing five-straight in the first half before hitting a seven-game skid (0-6-1) from March 22 to April 5. Jordan Binnington then made 50 saves in a 3-1 win over Vegas on April 7. Suddenly the Blues offense sparked to life, scoring 12 goals in back-to-back wins over the Wild. The revival coincided perfectly with Arizona’s current losing streak and today, these teams meet with the fourth and final playoff spot in the West on the line.

St. Louis at Arizona
Saturday, 04/17, 6 PM ET
Line: Blues -135 and 5.5 UN -120

Notorious with close margin games, the Blues have recorded 45 wins by exactly one goal in the past three seasons, tied for ninth-most in the league. This year, however, St. Louis is only 11-13 in games decided by a one-goal margin. Three of those losses were against Colorado, which wouldn’t surprise anyone. But three more came against these Coyotes, and as they get set for their first battle since Feb. 15, St. Louis will look to Binnington to help regain that edge.

  • Good offensive teams that average more than 29.5 shots are 132-97 (58%) on the road after recording 30-plus shots in each of their past five games.

St. Louis has notched 30-plus shots in five-straight games. They’ve climbed into 12th spot with 30.0 shots per game on the season, and the Coyotes rank dead last with 26.5 shots per game. The last time these teams faced off, Arizona won 1-0 but the Blues outshot the Yotes 24-19.

  • Home teams off a divisional road loss (Arizona), are 253-157 (62%) against opponents coming off a game where both teams scored 3 or more goals.

The Coyotes are in the midst of their fourth winning season in a row against the Blues. They went 2-1 in three-straight years before 2021, and are now up 4-3 in the series. These two squads are identical in traditional power play stats, but the Blues have a notable edge in net power play, which takes into account the number of short handed goals a team allows.

  • When the total was greater than 5, the UNDER is 24-11 (69%) between these two teams.

St. Louis is also 5-0 UNDER with revenge in 2021, and 12-4 UNDER after allowing more than three goals the previous game.

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My NHL Max Plays are 10-3 (77%) this season for a bankroll profit of +$6,170. I’m also hitting 60% with Over/Under picks, going 36-24. Grab my next set of NHL picks today and check out my NBA, MLB and MLS picks as well. I’m 19-10 (66%) with Soccer this month for +$7,670 and dime bettors added +$13,580 with my MLS picks last season!

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Sports picksApril 15, 2021

No-hitter stats and post no-hitter stats for today’s Cleveland at Chicago game. Plus, a look at the series opener between Arizona and Washington.


no-hitter stats

Rodon, White Sox no-hit AL Central Rival

The MLB Baseball season is a long one, but we are already seeing glimpses of greatness through the first few weeks. White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon is the latest starting pitcher to blow everyone’s mind, tossing a no-hitter Wednesday night in a 8-0 win over the Cleveland Indians.

Rodon is already the second pitcher to throw a no-no in 2021, after Padres righty Joe Musgrave notched the first-ever no-hit gem in Friars history last Friday. It took San Diego 8,206 games to join the no-hit club. Meanwhile, the White Sox have now logged 20 in the book, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

All-Time MLB Leaders in No-Hitters

Los Angeles Dodgers: 26
Chicago White Sox: 20
Boston Red Sox: 18
Chicago Cubs: 16
Cincinnati Reds: 16

Salt in the Wound

It’s bad enough being shut out, it’s worse getting no-hit. The salt in the wounds for Cleveland is that after San Diego’s no-hitter drought was ended, the Indians now hold the distinction as the team that has gone longest since throwing its last no-no. It’s been 39 years and 11 months for Cleveland (May 15, 1981).

The no-hitter stats are stacked against Cleveland, but they’ll get a chance to redeem themselves today with Aaron Civale on the hill against Lance Lynn.

Cleveland at Chicago
Thursday, 04/15, 2:10 PM ET
Line: White Sox -145 and 8 UN -115

Civale (2-0, 2.45 ERA) has two wins under his belt against the Tigers. That sounds like a punchline, but keep in mind the Tigers (6-6) have won three in a row and they scored 20 runs in those three wins. Lynn (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is getting love from the bookmakers here after his complete game shutout vs. Kansas City April 8. In Lynn’s first start at Los Angeles, he only lasted 4 and 2/3 innings, but neither run scored against him was earned. In all, he’s given up 11 hits in 13 2/3 innings with 17 strikeouts.

No-Hitter Stats

These no-hitter stats look at every scenario from the past 17 years, regular season and playoffs included.

  • Since 2004, MLB teams are 19-33 (37%) after being held to zero hits.

The more recent record since 2019 is 1-6 straight up, and only one of the six losing teams stayed within a run.

  • Away teams that were no-hit in their last outing are 7-18 SU (28%), with a current losing streak of nine-straight.

These road teams have been outscored 4.2 to 3.0 and the last one to stay within a run was Cincinnati on May 8, 2019. Cleveland was last held to zero hits in 2011 and they responded the next day with a 12-0 blowout loss to Kansas City. Cleveland was a -134 favorite in that contest.

I’m coming off my third winning day in a row, with dime bettors banking +$11,240. My picks are 19-7 (73%) and I have another set of winning picks lined up for you today. Grab my MLB Baseball picks and follow @Wunderdog for free picks daily!

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National League Feature Matchup

Two teams in need of a change of scenery, the Diamondbacks (4-8) head on the road after back-to-back home losses to Oakland. Washington (3-6), meanwhile, comes off a 6-0 win at St. Louis but they were just 2-4 on a road trip that included a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers.

Arizona at Washington
Thursday, 04/15, 7:05 PM ET
Line: Nationals -165 and 8.5 OV -115

Merrill Kelly (0-2, 8.10 ERA) will start for the D-backs, his first time getting the nod against Washington. Like so many other pitchers before him, Kelly was pounded in Colorado his last outing. The right-hander gave up six earned runs through six innings including four in the first two innings. He’s thrown 90-plus pitches in two tough matchups (Padres), and received little run support.

  • Arizona is 15-4 UNDER the past two seasons when the total is 8.5 to 10.

Patrick Corbin (0-1, 12.46 ERA) has only made one start after starting the season on the Covid list. It’s one he would like to forget, as the two-time All-Star surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings leading to a 9-5 loss. The nine-year vet spent his first six seasons with Arizona going 56-54 in 154 starts with a 3.91 ERA.

  • Corbin is 14-4 UNDER at home with a total in the 8.5 to 10 range.

The D-backs have done well with a day off, going 33-15 (69%) since 2018. As a road dog, they are 11-5 with rest, scoring 6.2 runs per game. The OVER is 12-3-1 in those 16 games and 2-1 when Kelly started, but his career mark with extra rest is 4-11 UNDER.

Corbin has led his team to a 29-17 record as a home favorite of -125 to -175. He is also 33-14 as a favorite of -150 or more, and the early Consensus Data shows the Nats at 64%.

Arizona went 5-11 against left-handed starters in 2020 and they are off to a 0-2 start in 2021. Washington has excelled the past 10 years when opening a home stand, going 50-30 (63%) as the favorite. During the first half of the year, that win percentage expands to 67% (32-16).

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Baseball picksApril 10, 2021

MLB baseball systems for top starting pitchers, an underdog betting angle plus trends for today’s games.


MLB baseball systems

Major League Baseball is a game of numbers, and MLB systems and trends are at the root of baseball betting for thousands of talented handicappers. The approach that each bettor takes has more variations than Salvador Perez, calling for a slider with a runner on second. The ability to develop and adapt a quality baseball system, however, is a rewarding feeling.

In this week’s MLB baseball betting segment, I’m looking at a few of the elements used to create a winning system. I also have a couple of trends that are live on today’s card. My MLB picks are up +175 games over .500 since 2018, and I’ve made well over a thousand plays in that span. Systems and trends are just a small part of the equation, but if you can learn to understand some of these concepts, you too can win at baseball betting.

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Opponent’s Win/Loss Percentage

In moneyline betting, the juice will often reflect a variance in win/loss percentage between the two clubs. With baseball, a starting pitcher that’s shown a penchant for big time performances against winning teams can provide the advantage you need to beat the line.

Take Clayton Kershaw for example. The perennial Dodgers’ ace has posted a phenomenal 176-77 career record in the regular season, good for a .696 win percentage. When Kershaw was at home against teams that were .600 or better, though, his career record jumped to 21-6 (.778), good enough to beat the bookmaker’s inflated lines, year after year.

  • From 2014-18, Kershaw won 13-straight home starts as against elite teams, netting dime bettors +$13,000 in profit.

In 2021, keep an eye out for these five starting pitchers at home against winning teams:

  1. Antonio Senzatela, Rockies: 16-6 (.727)
    Dime bettors are up +$13,910 backing Senzatela in this role.
  2. Kershaw (see above)
  3. Mike Fiers, Athletics: 18-9 (.667)
    Like so many others on Oakland this season, Fiers is currently out with an injury (back). The latest is that he plans to throw on Monday, and could return to the rotation by the end of April. Overall, Fiers has a 26-9 record since joining Oakland in 2018.
  4. Blake Snell, Padres: 19-6 (.760)
    Snell has earned +$11,980 against elite opponents, actually leading the American League in 2018 with a 1.89 ERA. In two starts with the Padres, he’s allowed just two runs on six hits, holding hitters to a miniscule .162 average. Once Snell starts stretching out to six-plus innings of work, he’ll be worth a look against any team. Consider betting him in the first five innings, as well.
  5. Max Fried, Braves: 12-1 (.923)
    Fried’s last home loss against a winning team was July 28, 2018. He’s won 11 in a row since then, and after his two road starts in 2021, there could be great value when he takes the hill for his next home start. Check his status, as Fried was hit in the leg by a comebacker on Wednesday in Washington. He’s projected to start Monday against the visiting Marlins and if he’s good to go, this would be a great matchup.

Follow @Wunderdog on Twitter for more MLB Baseball Systems in 2021

Road Dogs Roughing up the Pen

One situation to look for early in the season is a scrappy road dog that chased the starter yesterday, gaining a good look at the bullpen. For one, we’re getting plus-money on these teams which is always nice. Second, the home team’s pitching staff has been thinned out. Even if the relievers in Game 2 or 3 of this series are fresh, their depth has already been compromised from the first game, activating this system.

  • April road dogs against a thinned out pen (same series), have added +$22,550 in bankroll profit on an average moneyline of +130.

Trends with Benefits

I posted MLB betting trends last week, for every team in the league. This weekend, I’ve circled two high-percentage angles that are live right now.

Chicago at Pittsburgh
Saturday, 04/10, 6:35 PM ET
Line: Cubs -155 and 8.5 OV -115

These two started their series on Thursday and I correctly predicted a Cubs victory. Chicago’s bats came to life, with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo slugging long balls in a 4-2 win.

  • Road faves of -125 or more that are hitting less than .190 the past five games are 112-51 (69%) the past 10 years, banking +$34,880 in profits.

Chicago is only hitting .157 on the season (30th), with the Pirates not far ahead at .202 (24th). Pittsburgh’s run production is even worse at just 2.71 per game (29th).

Boston at Baltimore
Saturday, 04/10, 7:05 PM ET
Line: Red Sox -135 and 9.5 UN -115

The top two teams in the AL East hookup here, Boston coming off a 7-3 win in the opener on Thursday. The Red Sox have now won four in a row after opening with a pitiful string of losses to start the campaign. The O’s have given up seven runs in three of their past four, all losses.

  • Boston is 89-50 OVER (64%) the past three seasons against American League teams hitting less than .260.

Baltimore (4-3) is currently 17th in the majors, hitting .217 through seven games. I should point out that Boston is also on a 24-12 OVER run vs. teams with a winning record. Garrett Richards is starting against Bruce Zimmerman. Richards is 0-4 lifetime against the O’s, posting a bloated 7.33 ERA and 1.519 WHIP.

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Hockey picksApril 8, 2021
Thursday NHL betting tips

The Thursday NHL betting lineup is absolutely stacked, with 10 matchups on the board. Florida and Carolina are going at it in the Central, with first place on the line. The top six teams in the East division are all in action, and I have trends and tips for each contest. And then in the North, the Montreal Canadiens will try to keep pace after their loss to Toronto.

Central Division Showdown

The Florida Panthers and Carolina Panthers are getting used to their new role as division rivals. They’ve also had to learn what it takes to stay on top. Each finished fourth in their respective division last year but without the Capitals, Penguins and Bruins to contend with, these two have moved into the penthouse with Tampa Bay and the fight for first is on.

Florida at Carolina
Thursday, 04/08, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Hurricanes -145 and 6 UN -120

Each of these teams posted double-digit wins in March, with consistent winning records in every month to date. Florida is 12-7 on the road and had its six-game win streak snapped here on Tuesday, 5-2. The score sounds more lopsided than it was. Florida led 2-1 after 40 minutes but the Canes came to life in the third. After two empty netters, Florida’s record this season when leading after the second fell to 18-1-1.

  • Teams with three-straight wins over an opponent that is playing its eighth game in 14 days, are 357-197 (64%) since 1996.

The Hurricanes are .500 or better against every team in the Central. They’ve won four of five against Florida and are 13-4 is this series since 2016.

My NHL picks have returned +$207,450 in the past 12 years!

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East Side Brawl

In terms of Points Percentage, the top of the East has easily turned into the league’s most crowded house. The Islanders and Capitals are tied for sixth overall at .692, followed by the Penguins (.641) and Bruins (.639). The Rangers and Flyers are then tied for 16th overall with identical .538 records in terms of Points Percentage. For Thursday NHL betting, this division is a one-stop shop.

Pittsburgh at New York Rangers
Thursday, 04/08, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Rangers -120 and 6 OV -115

New York has struggled to find consistency this season but it helps having Artemi Panarin in the lineup. The Russian had a goal and three assists in a 8-4 blowout win against the Pens on Tuesday, hitting 40 points in just 27 games. The loss was Pittsburgh’s second in a row and they’ve allowed 15 goals in those two, including 7-5 to Boston on Saturday.

  • Pittsburgh’s record after losing two of three games is 22-9 (71%).

The Rangers are 10-3 UNDER this year in back-to-back situations, but the Penguins firepower can’t be underestimated. Teams like the Pens are 117-90 off a blowout loss and 28-13 (68%) after getting lit up in back-to-back games.

Boston at Washington
Thursday, 04/08, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Capitals -120 and 5.5 OV -120

Jeremy Swayman became the fourth Bruins goalie to notch a win this season, making 40 stops in his NHL debut, a 4-2 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday. The Bruins went up early on a pair from Patrice Bergeron, then used a shorty from Brad Marchand to break a 2-2 tie in the third. The Bruins are 2-0-2 against the Capitals this season, beating them 5-1 on March 5.

  • Washington’s record when avenging a road loss is 27-12 OVER (69%).

The Bruins power play unit has climbed to seventh overall at 24.1%. Against above-average power plays, Washington possesses a record of 36-19 OVER (65%) the past two seasons. These two will meet again on Sunday in the second of four April matchups.

Follow @Wunderdog for Thursday NHL betting news, tips and predictions!

Philadelphia at New York Islanders
Thursday, 04/08, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Islanders -165 and 5.5 OV -120

The Islanders bolstered their offense for a playoff run this week, grabbing Kyle Palmieri (8 G, 9 A) and Travis Zajac (7 G, 11 A). from the Devils in exchange for two minor leaguers and draft picks. New York is scoring 3.0 goals on the season but they are 16-3 at home, averaging 3.9 goals per game. This is the fifth meeting between these teams in three weeks and the Islanders are 3-1-1 the past four. In three home games, New York scored 3-6-3 goals.

  • The Flyers have a 18-4 OVER record this year in a 4-in-7, and they are 9-1 OVER when playing in a 3-in-4.

At 26-12 OVER (68%), the Flyers have proven to be the strongest play for OVER bettors all season. In March, Philly was 9-0 OVER on the road but they have since played back-to-back away games with lower scores, here on April 3 and Monday at Boston. Philly’s shooting percentage has reached 10% (T-11th with Islanders), and in the past five games the Flyers are firing 34.8 shots. That’s five more than their season average of 29.8 shots per game.

Northern Lights

The Canadiens battled to a 3-2 home loss against Toronto last night, evening their April record at 2-2. Once considered a powerhouse at this time of year, Montreal is now just 12-14 in April the past five seasons. If this team wants to be a serious contender down the stretch, they need to prove they can withstand tests like this on a nightly basis. And with these two slated to meet again on Saturday, this should be a great matchup.

Winnipeg at Montreal
Thursday, 04/08, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Canadiens -140 and 5.5 OV -130

The Jets gave up two goals in the third when these two met on March 17, allowing the Habs to steal a point before Winnipeg’s 4-3 win in overtime. In six meetings this year, the Jets hold a 4-2 advantage but three of six have gone past 60 minutes. The OVER is also 5-1 this season, and 18-9 the past 10 years.

  • When the Jets score 3-plus goals this season, they are 21-3 SU (88%) including a current win streak of seven-straight games.

Home on zero rest, Montreal has allowed three-plus goals six consecutive times when coming off a home game. Teams off the Leafs are also just 12-26 this season, and teams that lost to the Leafs by a one-goal margin are 7-3-1 to the OVER.

My Masters picks went 4-2 last year and I have eight plays on the board for today, including a Max Play. My all-time record with Max Plays in Golf is 11-7 (61%), for a profit of +$5,410. So check out my Masters picks and for Thursday NHL betting, grab all of my winning hockey picks!

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Baseball picksApril 1, 2021

MLB trends for every team including April best bets, series opener trends and Over/Under numbers you do not want to miss.


Opening Day is Here

MLB trends for every team, 2021 opening day baseball.

We all have our own memories of Opening Day in Major League Baseball. From watching a live game, to huddling around the TV with family and friends, betting big on this year’s ace, or watching your cleanup hitter knock one out of the park for win No. 1. It’s the start of a new season and it gives hope to every team, along with all the diehard fans out there.

This is an exciting day for bettors and I’m firing six picks onto the board as we launch into a new campaign, with plenty more planned for the weekend. My baseball picks have banked more than 10 grand for dime bettors over the past three years, going +177 games over .500, and it all starts here in April.

  • My MLB picks went 72-53 (58%) in April of 2019, including an 8-3 (73%) record with Over/Under picks.

I’ve put together a handful of MLB trends for every team as we start the season, and these are trends you can track throughout the year. Better yet, buy my 2021 Baseball package and let me do the work for you. It’s a long year ahead and I’m up for the challenge.

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Best April Bets in Baseball

One could argue that strength of schedule is the biggest factor in determining April records, but the bottom line is that some teams are more adept to strong starts. Also remember that in moneyline betting, it’s more than just win-percentage that tells the story. Sometimes the value is with underdogs that are consistently overlooked. Here is a look at MLB’s top April picks over the past decade.

  1. Cardinals (146-98), +27.3 units
  2. Yankees (141-96), +20.6 units
  3. Rockies (134-114), +19.6 units
  4. Diamondbacks (130-122), +15.1 units
  5. Rangers (130-117), +14.5 units
  6. Mets (131-111), +12.4 units

St. Louis is not only the most profitable April home team since 2010, they are the third-highest moneymaker on the road, as well. The Cards have banked +17.3 units away from home and they open the season in Cincinnati, getting plus-money. To get the win, St. Louis will rely on a retooled defense and a strong start from right-hander Jack Flaherty.

  • Cardinals RHP Flaherty is 14-4 UNDER in day games the past three seasons.

Flaherty had five April starts in 2019 and the Cardinals went 3-2 with 4 OVERS and 1 UNDER. This is a low total, currently set at 7.5 UN (-120). St. Louis went 14-9 on the road against righties last season, including a mark of 6-1 when the line was within 20 cents of even money.

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MLB Teams to Fade in April

Getting behind in the count early in baseball is no fun. During the first month, these next seven teams have proven to be the best clubs to bet AGAINST since 2010.

  1. Angels (119-130), +16.1 units
  2. Dodgers (131-117), +14.8 units
  3. Blue Jays (116-134), +14.7 units
  4. Reds (112-137), +14.3 units
  5. Marlins (103-138), +12.5 units
  6. Astros (116-134), +11.9  units
  7. Padres (106-146), +11.3 units

The eighth team on this list would have been the Kansas City Royals, and if you want a more recent history, no team in baseball has been a bigger April fade than the Royals.

Royal Pain: Since 2018, the Royals are 14-38 (.269) in the month of April, going 7-19 in both 2018 and 2019.

Kansas City opens the season at home against the Rangers with Brad Keller on the mound against Texas righty Kyle Gibson. Keller is 0-2 against the Rangers (one start), but the Royals have had a decent off-season. The line on this game tips the oddsmaker’s hand, where Kansas City is favored by -160. Could 2021 signal a year of change for the Comeback Kids?

Best Record in Series Opener

Since 2015, seven teams have consistently shown profitability in a series opener. The first three are the D-Backs (+30 units), Astros (+22.5 units) and Rockies (+18.7 units), but they’ve already had their moment of fame above. Here’s the next set of leading moneymakers.

  1. Cubs (171-112), +18.2 units
  2. Twins (145-133), +18 units
  3. Braves (141-138), +17.8 units
  4. Red Sox (160-119), +11.5 units

The Bo-Sox have banked +10.8 units in April series openers alone. Boston opens the season against the Baltimore Orioles and divisional games have been a tough go for the O’s.

  • Baltimore went 5-15 away against the AL East during the 2020 season.

Get my premium selection on the Orioles at Red Sox game today!

MLB Trends for Every Team

As I worked through my list of trend sets to start the season, it was interesting to note the handful of teams that slipped into mediocrity with nearly every category. Here’s one that dug out a few gems, though.

Divisional Fades, First Half of Season

Before the All-Star break, be cautious around the Oakland A’s when pitted against the AL West.

  • Oakland is 115-133 (.464) in early-season divisional play since 2015.

Fading the A’s against their division rivals netted +14.5 units over this span. Two more teams that fit into this category are the Phillies and Mariners. Oakland opens against Houston today while Philadelphia hosts Atlanta.

Best OVER Teams with High Totals

When the posted total is greater than O/U 9, the top play for OVER bettors is none other than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have played OVER at a rate of 63% (74-45) since 2015, banking +26.7 units.

Two more teams to note when the total gets up there are the White Sox (+12.5 units) and Nationals (+10.8 units). The Cubbies (+14.4 units) also play a lot of OVERS thanks to their Windy City, but Chicago had the nod up in my ‘Series Opener’ category.

Detroit Tigers, Best Dog to Fade: Bettors have banked +53.6 units wagering against the Tigers as an underdog the past 15 years.

Cleveland Indians, Best UNDER bet as Road Faves: The Indians have generated +37.8 units of profit in this role, more than any other team by almost +10 units.

Detroit (Boyd) and Cleveland (Bieber) will open the season at 1:10 pm ET today.

Speaking of Mediocrity

The Milwaukee Brewers are not only the most profitable team in baseball when the total is 8 or 8.5 (+34.2 units), they are the top UNDER team, too. The Brew Crew have played 128-88 UNDER (59%) in this middle of the road total since 2017, good for +34 units. Basically, when the total is 8 or 8.5, the trend says bet the Brewers and bet the UNDER.

By the way, have you checked the Over/Under odds for the Twins and Brewers today?

Double Play

The last two on my list of MLB trends for every team are San Francisco and Tampa Bay. It’s no wonder the Giants didn’t show up on my early-season charts – they are postseason stars!

  • San Francisco is the most profitable playoff bet in baseball (+24.4 units).

Note that as much of a cash cow the Giants have been in October, they have not posted an April record above .500 in five-straight seasons. Their combined April record during this span is 54-71 (.432) for a net loss of -20.1 units.

As for the Rays, they possess one of the strongest April arms in baseball the past four seasons in Tyler Glasnow. First with the Pirates and now with the American League champs, Glasnow has worked his way from third up to top spot in the rotation. In 23 starts the past two years, Tampa Bay is 11-2 with Glasnow on the hill. This team is poised to challenge once again in 2021 and they’ll start today as -150 road faves in Miami.

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