Why the Money Line Bets?

Ever since we started doing this in 2001, we have been on a perpetual search for betting value. We are never satisfied and are always looking for better wagering opportunities. We have found some opportuntities that we believe have hidden value in unique under-the-radar bet types. These are primarily moneyline bets.

Why play unique bets like the moneyline?
Against-the-spread (ATS) and totals (OVER/UNDER) bets get most of the attention in the sports-betting world. In fact, 98% of all bets placed fall into this category. What does that mean for the other 2%? It means those willing to tread there can find gold!

Moneyline bets in paticular have hidden extraordinary value. Why? Because they don't get much attention from bettors. Most bettors are unsure how to bet the moneyline profitably and/or don't have discipline to bet it correctly. We have found a subset of moneyline bets that have proven to be extremely profitable on a consistent basis. The lack of attention by the betting public on these unique bet types result in opportunities that can be exploited on a consistent basis.

On the moneyline bets, we will be recommending that you:

  1. Bet on underdogs to win outright. You will likely have less than a 50% chance to win these bets, but when they do hit, they will pay big, resulting in a strong overall profit.

Example: If we bet un an underdog at +250 to win outright, we only need to win this bet about 28% of the time to make money. Anything above that is pure profit! On these, we'll be expecting to win at a 40%+ rate.

  1. Bet on favorites to win outright. On these bets, we will be risking a lot relative to what we will win. But, we expect to win these bets at a very high rate, ensuring a steady, consistent solid return.

Example: If we bet on a favorite at -400 to win outright, we need to hit at an 80% rate to break-even. Anything above that is profit. On these bets, we'll be expecting to win 90% or higher if we make a pick. We will recommend plays as high as -1000, but only if we have an extremely high confidence of a win (i.e. 95%+).

Chart: Winning Percentage Needed to Break-Even on Money-Line

Arbitrage
William Poundstone, in "Fortune's Formula" – a book about profiting in the financial and gambling markets, defines arbitrage as "any attempt to profit from irrationality in the market." Poundstone notes that "the return on investment may be far more than with more conventional stock or bond investing." Arbitrage opportunities exist in the sportsbetting world as well. In order to have a true arbitrage opportunity, you need two things:

  1. A real market inefficiency (i.e an edge)
  2. A reasonable opportunity (i.e time) to exploit the edge

If you don't have the edge, you have nothing. If you have an edge but it dissappears quickly, you cannot profit much from it. In these moneyline plays, we have identied edges that stick around long enough to exploit.

A sports-betting Hedge Fund
The kinds profitable opportunities mentioned above exist in other investment arenas (i.e. the stock market). When skilled investors spot such opportunities, they exploit them while they can. In the stock market, such profitable opportunities never last long – they close up quickly after they are discovered as millions or billions of dollars are poured in to profit from the market inefficiency. The best minds in the world are looking for these stock market opportunities and edges simply don't last long. The Hedge Fund industry evolved around very smart people finding and exploiting these small edges. The best hedge fund managers make millions of dollars thanks to their expertise in continually uncovering new opportunities. Investors pay them handsomely for their efforts (around 25% commission).

In the sports betting world, such edges can remain available for much longer as the betting public is relatively unsophisticated, lacking the ability to fully exploit them. Very few skilled practitioners have attempted to find these opportunities in sports betting. Those that have found them can reap great rewards.

Think of the these speciatly bets as a part of a sports betting "hedge fund" without the crazy hedge fund fees. We find unique profitable investment opportunties that result in extraordinary returns for their investors.

The irrationality of the betting public (not identifying or taking advantage of these unique opportunities we have identified due to lack of knowlege or willingness) is an opportunity for us. We have found an edge, and thanks to the lack of attention from the public, the edge and the arbitrage opportunity remain for us to exploit.

Are you right for moneyline bets?
Hedge funds (in the stock market or in sports betting) are not for everyone – they are for serious investors that understand risk and reward, are willing to do what it takes to exploit the edges, and want an opportunity to receive above average returns.

In order to bet the moneyline, you must have the right mindset and an adequate bankroll. Requirements:

  1. Bankroll management is absolutely crucial. You need to have an adequate sized bankroll based on your bet size (100x – 200x your typical "unit", $10,000 to $20,000 for example if you bet $100 per unit)
  2. A willingness to bet the moneyline on large underdogs that win less than 50% of the time but have large payouts when they do win (and a positive overall profit expectation).
  3. A willingness to bet the moneyline on large favorites that will win at a very high rate but will require you to risk a large amount to win a relatively small amount on each bet (again with a positive overall profit expectation).
  4. A willingness to measure results over the long term instead of the short term (by the bet, by the day).
  5. Realistic expecatations. You understand that a 10%-15% ROI is tremendous and you aren't dissapointed if you don't double your money every week.

The reality is that 95%+ of sports bettors lose. These picks are designed to flip that number on it's head. It is proven to win consistently. We tell you EXACTLY what to do and thus minimize the risk of losing due to poor money management or unsure bets.

These specialty bets are readily available, but they may seem strange on the surface at first. But, that is why they have value! Most people are not aware of these opportunities and even if they were, many would be unwilling to take advantage of them. This is how we can win consistently – by finding opportunities that we can exploit that the most sports bettors are unaware of.

How to get these picks
These bets are included in our regular picks packages (all guaranteed) here.

Questions? Email us or give us a call.