The Chiefs have made some changes this offseason. They have added a new coach in Andy Reid, and he is one of the most respected coaches in the game. On top of that, they have added a new QB in Alex Smith. Both coaching and quarterbacking was a problem last year, so the Chiefs figure to be improved over the next few years. So how will this impact you as a bettor? Are the Chiefs going to be a force or are they going to be the same old Chiefs?

The truth is that the Chiefs are likely to come into next season underrated. They lost a lot of games last year, but that team has a lot of talent. It was not long ago that they were a league average club. If they draft well this spring, they might go into the next year as a team poised for a nice run. You can probably make some good money betting the Chiefs over the first few weeks of the season.

You should watch very closely to see how the media perceives this team. If ESPN and the other talking heads are pumping this team in a big way, then there is a good chance that they won’t be a good value. It is up to you determine where the public perception is going to be. If the public jumps on the Chiefs, then the value will go away in a hurry. But if they fly under the radar, then you might have some good opportunities to bet the Chiefs early next year.

The NFL has a bad habit of passing rules every offseason that bettors have to adjust to. If you don’t adjust to the rules, you will find yourself losing in the early part of the season. So what are the new rules for the next year and how will they impact your NFL picks? One of the new rules has to do with running backs. They are not given the opportunity to put their head down in the open field. This can result in a 15-year penalty, and it might change some games.

So what does this mean for your NFL game picks? It could have a small effect on scoring, pushing totals down a bit over the course of the year. It might also have an effect on those players who run very hard. People like Trent Richardson will see some lapse in effectiveness as a result of this new rules. When rules like this are passed, though, you have to be aware not only of the text of the rule, but also how the rule will be applied in real life. Are officials going to call this rule every time?

Chances are that this rule will be called every so often. When it is called, it will probably have a huge effect on the game. This does not seem like the kind of rule that is going to come into play multiple times in a game, though. The reasons for this are easy to understand. There are not that many runs where this sort of situation would play out. In addition, this rule will likely not be called as much by officials because it is very difficult to determine when a player has dropped his head. At least for this one, you might want to take a hard look at how it makes players change their game. On its own, this rule might not have a huge effect on outcomes, but players might change the way they play as a result.

Betting is all about the situational game. If you are going to make it big in NFL betting, you have to understand situations. What do you need to know? You need to know that teams are not always the same. Teams look better on one week than they look in the next. How they look depends largely upon a number of factors. The situation is one of those factors. Here are three good situational bets.

The team playing on a short week

So you have a team playing on a short week against one with plenty of rest? Here is your chance to make a nice situational bet. If you are going to do well with NFL handicapping, you have to be on top of these opportunities. You have to look at a tired team and avoid betting on them. The well-rested team will provide you with much better value at the end of the day.

The team with a big game next week

If you have a team that has a bigger game next week, then this week might be a trap spot. You would like to think that every team is going to give full effort each week. This does not happen, though, in many cases. The team that has a big game next week will often look past this opponent. You don’t want to be on that kind of team. You want to be on the right side.

The hyped team off of its first loss

The conventional wisdom says that when a good team loses for the first time, they will bounce back in a big way the next time. This is not always the case, though. Some teams struggle a lot in these spots. You need to evaluate each of these games for its own merit. Don’t just take an NFL bet because you think a team will bounce back. Sometimes, you will see that a team is fit for a letdown in that spot.

The next football season doesn’t start for a few months, but that doesn’t mean that we have to stop thinking about the game. For those of you who make Super Bowl picks, the time to think about next year is right now. Who is going to be the favorite in 2013? Can we pick out a club right now that might do its business in the next Super Bowl? Perhaps the answer will bore you, because the same old teams are right at the top of the list. Things haven’t changed that much in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers have to be at the top of the list. When you make NFL predictions, you will like to favor those teams with good QBs and good defenses. Good coaches help, too. San Fran has all of that and much more. The QB situation should improve out in the Bay, as Kaepernick gets more experience. In addition, almost every contributor on that defense is coming back. They will be a force yet again, and you would be wise to think of San Fran as a Super Bowl contended next year. The only question will be health and whether they can produce in the zone read once again. All signs point to that going well for the 49ers.

You might also look to the Green Bay Packers as a potential under the radar team. The Packers were very close to being the top overall seed in the NFC this year, and they still have a lot of talent. Aaron Rodgers is still probably the best QB in the league, so that gives them a chance. You have to think that Green Bay will figure things out on defense in the coming months. If they can get good production on D, they will be very hard to beat next season.

So you want to make NFL picks, but you aren’t sure about how to play the trends. That is perfectly alright, and it is something that you should investigate. There are many big and small trends that people will talk about when they talk about betting on the NFL. For instance, people may talk a bit about playing home underdogs. It is true that home dogs continue to win at a nice clip in the NFL. But this trend is not so strong that you just need to play all home dogs. It is what we should call a selective trend.

In addition, you might wonder about travel trends. Many people will tell you to make NFL football picks against a west coast team traveling east to play an early game. This trend has been strong in the past, but it has been less effectively lately. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, teams have adjusted to the challenges, and they have gotten smarter in how they prepare their players for those sorts of challenges. In addition to that, the market has adjusted in many respects.  Now, the market knows about this trend, so there is a chance that bettors are overcompensating.

If you are going to make good NFL betting picks this year, you need to understand trends, but not rely on them too much. Trends can ultimately be very helpful when you are looking for angles to shoot. You should not use them in place of other good methods, though. Handicapping is still about knowing your matchups and knowing how to analyze the different teams. Remember this if you want to have long-term success with NFL picks.

So the NFL season is gone. The Super Bowl has passed us, and the opportunities to make bets are gone for almost a half year. Until preseason NFL fires up in August, you have to fill your time in some way. You might like to bet basketball, hockey, or even baseball. That is one way to fill the time, but it’s not all that you should be doing if you are an NFL bettor. You also have to keep your eyes open for information that can help you going forward. You have to be aware of the little roster changes and rule changes that might make betting easy or hard next year.

The first thing to keep your eyes on is roster movement. Think about the rookies and how they effected NFL bets this year. Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson stole the show. Alfred Morris was huge. A bunch of other rookies made a huge impact in their own right. If you are not aware of the rookie crop, then you will stand very little chance of betting well in the early going. Don’t surrender opportunities just because you were too lazy to keep up with roster movement. There are some very good sites that will give you the information that you need.

In addition, you need to think about rule changes. Is the NFL going to do something that might drastically effect scoring? Rule changes will typically not benefit one team over another. They very well may change the way that points are scored, though. You need to be aware of these things and react to them before the betting public does. If you wait too long to get on board, you will find yourself having missed a number of great opportunities in the early going. Try to listen to the major sports news channels to figure out what the NFL is changing, if anything.