New Orleans at Kansas City

The Kansas City Chiefs have been a pretty good defensive team in recent years, and right now they are allowing 20.8 points per game. The Chiefs offense, however, over the last four games has produced just 19 points per game. The Saints have seen themselves in four shootouts already this season, and four of their five games have been decided by three points, one way or the other. The Saints, over the years, have been great offensively at home, but have struggled more on the road, averaging just 18.6 points per game last year away from the Superdome. This year their defense has been better on the road where they have allowed 25 points per game (vs. 39 per game at home). The Saints have been an underdog just 14 times over the past two and a half seasons, going 11-3 ATS in those games. Under Sean Payton, this team is 30-19 ATS when geting points, including 17-7 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. I think the spread is inflated here. Take New Orleans.