Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns

There is no question who the much better team is in this series as Minnesota has taken a 3-0 lead after burying the Suns 126-109 on Friday. Anthony Edwards had 36 points and led six double-figure scorers for the Timberwolves, who had a 50-28 edge in rebounds. Minnesota is just a slight favorite in Game 4 and we need to take advantage as it has covered five of six as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points and 6-2 ATS overall after a double-digit win. Phoenix is 6-14 ATS against teams with .600 winning percentages and 0-9 ATS its past nine playoff games as an underdog. The Suns have averaged only 99 points the first three games and they are 21-7 UNDER their past 28 home games. Also, the Suns are 9-4 UNDER following a loss and 24-10 UNDER after an ATS loss. Phoenix is 2-6 ATS its past eight games and 0-3 ATS in this series. Take the Timberwolves and the first half and the game UNDER all as Max Plays

Phoenix needs to win this one to avoid going down 3-0 in the series and Minnesota is in the letdown spot after convincingly winning the first two games at home. Game 2 went UNDER by 13 points and the Suns are 6-3 UNDER their past nine games and 47-37-0 UNDER on the season. Phoenix did a good job of containing Anthony Edwards on Tuesday as he went 3 for 12 from the floor for 15 points. However, the Suns will need to be better defending the rest of the scorers as Jaden McDaniels scored a career-best in the playoffs with 25 points. Phoenix has covered six of eight following an ATS loss and six of seven overall after being away from home for at least seven days. The UNDER is 20-6 when the Suns are home favorites and they are 11-1 UNDER at home against teams with winning road records. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS following a win. Take the Suns and the first half UNDER as a Max Play and the full game to stay UNDER the total.

Minnesota showed that there is no doubt who the superior team is as it routed the Suns 120-95 in Game 1 while outrebounding Phoenix 52-28. Anthony Edwards scored 18 of his 33 points in the third quarter and the Timberwolves hit 20 of 22 free throws while dominating every department. Minnesota surprisingly is just a small favorite in Game 2 and the Suns have been inconsistent all season. Five of the past six meetings have gone OVER and Minnesota is 7-2 OVER its past nine games. Phoenix is 0-7 ATS its past seven playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points and 0-8 ATS as a playoff dog overall. The Suns are 6-14 ATS as underdogs of 0.5-4.5 points dating back to the regular season. Phoenix hit just nine of 28 3-point tries while Minnesota shot 50 percent overall in Game 1. Take the Timberwolves as a Max Play, and take the OVER.

Minnesota is in triple-revenge and quick revenge after the Suns swept the season series, but the Timberwolves are healthy now after being without Karl-Anthony Towns for about six weeks. Minnesota will have to come out better defensively than it did on Sunday while losing 125-106 to Phoenix, which was in desperation mode trying to avoid the play-in tournament. The Suns held a 66-54 lead and cruised the rest of the way. Phoenix is 5-2 UNDER its past seven games and 6-1-1 UNDER its past eight playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points. The Suns are 12-5 UNDER as road underdogs overall and 6-13 ATS as dogs of 0.5-4.5 points. Phoenix is just 6-13-1 ATS following a double-digit win and the Timberwolves have covered 13 of 19 home games versus opponents with winning road records. Minnesota has stayed UNDER seven straight Saturday games. Take the Timberwolves as a Max Play and the UNDER as a Max Play.

It's the third consecutive road game for Phoenix, on a 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS run. The Suns are 42-56 ATS versus winning teams and 16-28 ATS after a victory. Minnesota has won 12 of 16 and will be playing at home for a chance at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the West. They're No. 1 defensively in the NBA in points given up and shooting allowed, 54-41 ATS against winning teams. Phoenix won the last meeting nine days ago at home but Minnesota is 44-25 ATS in revenge mode, so back home court. Play Minnesota.