Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays

Los Angeles is No. 1 in the majors offensively in runs scored and on-base percentage, plus third in slugging. Michael Grove (6.00 ERA) gets the start and the bullpen is just 16th in ERA (3.94). The Dodgers are on a 106-78 run OVER the total, including 56-34 OVER on the road and 33-15 OVER in interleague action. Toronto has lost five in a row with a bullpen that is 24th in ERA (4.85) and 19th in WHIP. Starter Kevin Gausman (5.57 ERA) has struggled with teams hitting over .300 off him. With Los Angeles 42-23 OVER the total against teams with bullpen ERAs of 4.20 or worse, look for an offensive show. Take Los Angeles/Toronto OVER the total. 

The LA Dodgers have won five straight games and the pitching staff has been great as they have combined to allow a total of six runs in the five games. That has not been the case all season as the Dodgers are allowing 4.11 runs per game. Toronto has dropped four straight games, and has slipped below the .500 mark at 13-14 on the season. The success of the Dodgers and the failure of the Blue Jays in recent games tends to skew the line. History shows that a team on a five or more game winning streak playing on the road vs. a team with at least a four game losing streak carry the baggage of a -3.6% ROI. The Jay's have lost three of those four games during the current losing streak by a single run. Make the play on Toronto.

Los Angeles plays its fourth straight road game a long way from home. The Dodgers give Gavin Stone (6.00 ERA) another start but he's allowed 32 base runners in 18 innings (10 walks). The bullpen is 16th in ERA (4.04 ERA). The Dodgers are 61-53 after a victory and 38-53 on the road after batting .333 or better over a three-game stretch. Toronto is 6-3 at home. Chris Bassitt (3.93 ERA) has won both his home starts topping the Yankees (3-1) and the Mariners (5-3) allowing one run each time (13 innings). The Blue Jays are 23-7 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span, so back home field. Play Toronto. 

The LA Dodgers had been chasing the lead in the NL West this season, but finally started playing much better baseball leading to a four-game lead over the D-Backs and Giants. The Dodgers are 19-9 in their last 28 games, and they've cashed in 25 of their last 36 home games. Toronto has been hot and cold all season, and they are 3-5 in their past eight after last night's setback. Tony Gonsolin starts for the home side and he has been tough, as the Dodgers have won each of his last three starts. Yusei Kikuchi came out of the gate strong and led the Jays to seven wins in his first eight starts, but he has since been a pedestrian 6-6 in his last 12 starts. I like the LA Dodgers.

Toronto is playing its fifth straight road game on the West Coast, splitting the first four (2-2). Today's starter, 34-year-old Chris Bassitt, has a 5.81 ERA on the road this season where batters are hitting over .300 off him. He faces a Los Angeles offense that is second in the majors in runs scored, plus third in on-base percentage and slugging. Lefty Julio Urias has a 2.15 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season and the team is 32-7 when he starts in the second half of the season. The Jays are 22-29 vs. lefties, and the Dodgers are also 60-30 as chalk of -150 or less, including 29-8 at home. Play Los Angeles.