New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

The Yankees offense is eighth in runs scored, fourth in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging, while the pitching is second in ERA (3.02) and No. 1 in the pen (2.36 ERA). Starter Luis Gil has 45 Ks in 37 innings while holding batters to a .143 average. Tampa Bay's offense is just 20th in runs scored and 23rd in slugging, while the pitching is 22n in ERA (4.29) and 24th in the pen (4.66 ERA). Tyler Alexander (4.96 ERA) has a 5.21 ERA at home and his ERA has been over 4.4 in each of the last two seasons. The Rays are 35-45 against a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start. Play New York.  

New York is 6-1 when Clarke Schmidt (3.50 ERA) takes the mound and he has a 2.81 ERA on the road. The Yankees offense is sixth in runs scored, second in on-base percentage, eighth in slugging, while the pitching is second in ERA (2.99) and No. 1 in the pen (2.25 ERA). New York is 20-8 against righty starters. Tampa Bay's offense is 19th in runs scored, 14th in on-base percentage, and 22nd in slugging, while the pitching is 23rd in ERA (4.41) and 27th in the pen (4.80 ERA). Taj Bradley comes up from Triple-A Durham and had a 5.59 ERA in 2023. With the Rays 34-44 versus a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start, back the visitors. Play New York. 

Tampa Bay has split its last eight and plays its third straight road game. The offense is 19th in runs scored, 20th in on-base percentage, and 22nd in slugging, while the bullpen has the fifth-worst ERA (5.54) and is 27th in WHIP. New York's offense is seventh in on-base percentage, while the bullpen is third in ERA (2.75). Starter Luis Gil has 20 Ks in 14 innings while holding batters to a .133 average. With the Yankees 25-16 against an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or better, back home field. Play New York.  

Tampa Bay has lost three of five after losing to New York yesterday, 5-3. The offense is 17th in runs scored, 15th in on-base percentage, and 22nd in slugging, while the bullpen has the second-worst ERA (5.81) and WHIP in the majors. Starter Zach Eflin (4.63 ERA) has only pitched in one road game and was pounded in a 7-1 loss at the Angels (5 runs allowed, 9 hits, in 5 innings). The Rays are 8-20 on the road against teams that convert on 75%+ of their save opportunities. New York's offense is 13th in runs scored and fourth in on-base percentage, while the bullpen is fifth in ERA (2.74). Starter Nestor Cortes has allowed no runs and just two hits in eight innings at Yankee Stadium this season, so back home field. Play New York.