Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee has beaten the Cardinals eight times in a row dating to last season following Saturday's 5-3 win when Rhys Hoskins hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the seventh inning. It was the seventh straight loss for St. Louis, which is in last place in the NL Central and it has been outscored 45-20 during the losing streak. Miles Mikolas is 2-5 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP and he is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA in day games this season. The Brewers already have faced him once this year and scored five runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. Bryse Wilson has allowed only one run on five hits his past two outings in 12 innings pitched without much run support. However, look for Milwaukee to score enough against Mikolas and the Cardinals. Take the Brewers.

St. Louis is 22-14 UNDER this season and the Cardinals are averaging just 2.62 runs their past eight games. One of their few bright spots this year, Kyle Gibson, has a 1.18 WHIP and he has allowed only five earned runs his past four outings, including two earned runs on seven hits in six innings against the New York Mets on Monday. Gibson has a .203 opponent batting average on the road while giving up seven runs in 20 innings. Freddy Peralta has a 3.49 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP and he pitched six shutout innings against the Cardinals on April 19. St. Louis has gone UNDER in Gibson's past five starts and the Cards are 5-0 UNDER in the third game of a series. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Gibson's past five starts after St. Louis allowed at least five runs its previous game. Take the UNDER.

St. Louis has lost five in a row. The offense is 29th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging. Lance Lynn comes off a bad start against the White Sox (four runs, three walks, in five innings) and the Cardinals are 15-32 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game stretch. Milwaukee won the opener of this series yesterday, 7-1. The offense is ninth in runs scored, plus third in on-base percentage and slugging. The Brewers are 33-15 as a home favorite of -150 or less, so back home field. Play Milwaukee. 

Last place St. Louis is getting outscored by 35 runs, the third-worst differential in the NL. The offense is 29th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage, 28th in steals, and 27th in slugging, while the pitching is 17th in WHIP. The Cardinals are on a 2-7 slide despite playing the last five at home. First-place Milwaukee is outscoring opponents by +19 runs, fourth-best in the NL. The offense is ninth in runs scored, fourth in on-base percentage, third in steals, and fifth in slugging. The defense is seventh in fielding percentage. The Brewers are 47-43 as an underdog, plus on a 41-24 run against divisional opponents. Play Milwaukee. 

It's the third consecutive road game for Milwaukee, as well as their ninth road game over the last 12 contests. The Brewers won yesterday, 12-5, but NL teams averaging 5.0 runs per game after scoring 8 or more runs are 21-43 against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or lower. St. Louis plays its third straight home game with a bullpen that is 11th in ERA (3.64). They also have ace Sonny Gray going, who has not allowed a run or a walk in two starts (11 innings). The Cardinals are 224-159 after three or more straight losses, plus 65-31 at home after batting .200 or less over a five-game span. Play the St. Louis Cardinals.