Denver at Dallas

Denver has been smokin' fools and lighting up chumps in these playoffs. Granted, most of their powerful wins have come at home. They lost to New Orleans in their first road game by two points. But, right after that, they tied the NBA record for biggest win in a playoff game, winning in New Orleans by 58 points. They are certainly not the same team on the road, but they are very capable of winning there. And with the way they are playing right now, much like Cleveland, it's hard to go against them until they show they can't get it done. Dallas is very good at home, but they are facing a team on a mission right now that appears to matchup very well with the Mavs. Josh Howard has a sprained ankle and without him at 100%, the Mavs are a much weaker team. He's third on the team in points (17.7) and fourth in rebounds. Back to the matchup - Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. Dallas. Dallas is having a hell of a time keeping up with the athleticism of the Nuggets. They simply don't have the athletes that Denver does - in the starting lineup or on the bench. As a result, Denver has outscored Dallas 54-13 in fast break points so far. Denver has shown they are not a one-trick pony with different players stepping up in nearly every game. If one or two players are off, another one or two have stepped up. Denver has posted a record of 26-7 this season in games with a total of 200 to 210. When they have 3+ days of rest/preparation, Denver is 12-2 this year. They are 24-10 off a home win including 14-5 when they scored 110+ in that win. Dallas is just 6-11 the past three seasons when trying to revenge two straight losses in which they gave up 100+ points in each. They are also 4-12 over that span when trying to revenge three straight losses to an opponent. Dallas is very tough at home and Denver has shown weakness on the road. However, this Denver team is playing as good as any team (along with Cleveland). They believe and they seem very motivated. This game could go either way but I give Denver a 50%+ chance of winning so the value lies on the Nuggets on the moneyline.